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- W4322009861 abstract "Verifying probabilistic forecasts for extreme events is a highly active research area because popular media and public opinions are naturally focused on extreme events, and biased conclusions are readily made. In this context, classical verification methods tailored for extreme events, such as thresholded and weighted scoring rules, have undesirable properties that cannot be mitigated, and the well-known continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) is no exception. Here, we define a formal framework for assessing the behavior of forecast evaluation procedures with respect to extreme events, which we use to demonstrate that assessment based on the expectation of a proper score is not suitable for extremes. Alternatively, we propose studying the properties of the CRPS as a random variable by using extreme value theory to address extreme event verification. An index is introduced to compare calibrated forecasts, which summarizes the ability of probabilistic forecasts for predicting extremes. The strengths and limitations of this method are discussed using both theoretical arguments and simulations." @default.
- W4322009861 created "2023-02-26" @default.
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- W4322009861 date "2023-05-15" @default.
- W4322009861 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
- W4322009861 title "Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of extremes using continuous ranked probability score distributions" @default.
- W4322009861 doi "https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-8824" @default.
- W4322009861 hasPublicationYear "2023" @default.
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