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- W4360874549 endingPage "102071" @default.
- W4360874549 startingPage "102071" @default.
- W4360874549 abstract "Early warning of ecological carrying capacity (ECC) is essential for the urbanization process. It provides information on the deterioration of the urban ecological environment and potential hazards and promotes sustainable development. However, research on early warning of ECC in the urbanization process has been limited and mainly focused on a single aspect of ECC, a comprehensive early warning system based on the three perspectives of ecological elasticity (EE), resource carrying (RC), and environmental carrying (EC) is still lacking. Additionally, previous studies did not effectively predict the future evolution trends of ECC and failed to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics. To address these shortcomings, in this study, we propose a comprehensive early warning indicator of ECC incorporating EE, RC, and EC. The state space technique and back-propagation (BP) neural network model were applied to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the warning state in the Dongting Lake area. The results showed that the ECC index decreased from 0.5383 to 0.5364 in 2001–2020, and the risk status was in the range of medium risk. This result was consistent with an analysis of the three subsystems, which indicated that urbanization exceeded the ECC. The early warning index of ECC is predicted to be 0.6257 in 2025. The risk status is predicted to be low risk. From 2001 to 2020, the risk status of counties were significantly different. Most counties in the central area had a low-risk status, and peripheral counties had a medium-risk status. The counties with the most serious risk status were mostly distributed along the edge of the area, in places with higher urbanization rates. Neither the spatial pattern nor the risk status is predicted to change substantially before 2025. Therefore, some targeted measures should be taken to improve the ECC and mitigate the risk." @default.
- W4360874549 created "2023-03-25" @default.
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- W4360874549 date "2023-07-01" @default.
- W4360874549 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W4360874549 title "Spatiotemporal evolution for early warning of ecological carrying capacity during the urbanization process in the Dongting Lake area, China" @default.
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- W4360874549 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2023.102071" @default.
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