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- W4366000878 abstract "본 연구는 현재 근로 노동형태에 따른 미래 노동형태의 동태적 변화를 확률적으로 분석하였다. 이를 위해 본 연구는 노동연구원의 한국노동패널조사를 활용하여 상용직 중 정규직, 상용직 중 비정규직, 임시직 및 일용직, 고용주/자영업자, 그 외의 다섯 가지로 노동형태를 류하고, 다항로짓모형을 통해 도출된 노동형태 전환확률행렬을 기반으로 마코브 체인 시뮬레이션을 실시하였다. 또한, 실질적 은퇴연령인 만49세를 기점으로 노동형태 전환확률행렬이 바뀔 것으로 가정하고, 만50세 미만 부분 표본 그리고 만50세 이상 부분 표본에 대해서도 동일한 형태의 마코브 체인 시뮬레이션을 실시하였다. 마코브 체인 시뮬레이션을 한결과, 만50세 미만의 노동자의 경우 임시직 및 일용직 그리고 상용직 중 비정규직으로 노동 활동을 시작한다고 해도, 궁극적으로 상용직 중 정규직으로 전환할 가능성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 만50세 이상의 노동자의 경우 현재 임시직 및 일용직 그리고 상용직 중 비정규직에 종사한다면 상용직 중 정규직으로의 전환이 어렵다는 결과가 도출되었다. 그리고 전체 표본을 기반으로 마코브 체인 시뮬레이션을 한 결과, 현재 상용직 중 정규직이나 고용주/자영업자에 종사한다면 상태의존성이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 상용직 중 정규직의 상태의존성은 만50세 미만의 경우와 고용주/자영업자의 상태의존성은 만 50세 이상의 경우에 더 큰 것으로 파악되었다. 분석결과를 바탕으로 본 연구는 만50세 미만의 실질적 은퇴 전 노동자 및 만50세 이상의 실질적 은퇴자에 대한 정책적 시사점과 향후 연구과제도 제시하였다. This study investigates the dynamic employment type change according to the current employment type in terms of probability. This paper utilizes the Korea labor panel survey of Korea labor institute and divides employment types into temporary workers and daily workers, regular workers among full-time workers, irregular workers among full-time workers, employers / self-employed persons, and others. Based on the multinomial logit results, we derive the labor pattern switching probability matrix which allows to use the Markov chain simulation. In addition, the same type of Markov chain simulation was conducted for sub-samples under the age of 50 and sub-samples over the age of 50, assuming that the transition probability matrix of labor patterns will change from the age of 49, which is the actual retirement age. As a result of the Markov chain simulation, it was found that workers under the age of 50 are more likely to switch to regular workers among full-time workers even if they begin their labor activities as temporary workers, daily workers, and non-regular workers. However, in the case of workers over 50 years old, it was found that it is difficult to convert into regular workers among full-time workers if they are engaged in temporary workers, daily workers, and non-regular workers. And as a result of the Markov chain simulation based on the whole sample, it was found that the state dependence is high if they are engaged in full-time job or employer / self-employed person among the current regular workers. Among the regular workers, the state dependency of regular workers was found to be greater in those under 50 years of age, and the state dependency of employers/self-employed workers was found to be greater in those over 50 years of age. Based on the results of the analysis, this study suggests policy implications and future research tasks for actual pre-retirement workers under the age of 50 and actual retirees over the age of 50." @default.
- W4366000878 created "2023-04-17" @default.
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- W4366000878 date "2023-03-31" @default.
- W4366000878 modified "2023-10-07" @default.
- W4366000878 title "An Analysis of the Potential Transition of Employment Types Using the Korean Labor Panel: Focusing on Comparisons between Before and After Retirement Age" @default.
- W4366000878 doi "https://doi.org/10.35183/ajbc.2023.03.15.1.44" @default.
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