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- W4366261678 abstract "Abstract With “2020 hindsight,” the 2000s housing cycle is not a boom–bust but a boom–bust–rebound. Using a spatial equilibrium regression in which house prices are determined by income, amenities, urbanization, and supply, we show that long-run city-level fundamentals predict not only 1997–2019 price and rent growth but also the amplitude of the boom–bust–rebound. This evidence motivates our model of a cycle rooted in fundamentals. Households learn about fundamentals by observing “dividends” but become over-optimistic in the boom due to diagnostic expectations. A bust ensues when beliefs start to correct, exacerbated by a price–foreclosure spiral that drives prices below their long-run level. The rebound follows as prices converge to a path commensurate with higher fundamental growth. The estimated model explains the boom–bust–rebound with a single shock and accounts quantitatively for the dynamics of prices, rents, and foreclosures in cities with the largest cycles. We draw implications for asset cycles more generally." @default.
- W4366261678 created "2023-04-20" @default.
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- W4366261678 date "2023-04-18" @default.
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- W4366261678 title "The 2000s Housing Cycle with 2020 Hindsight: A Neo-Kindlebergerian View" @default.
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- W4366261678 doi "https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdad045" @default.
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