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• W4366551344 abstract "Abstract What effect, if any, do changes in the terms of trade have on the level of output (GDP) or welfare? I examine this issue through two versions of a textbook, Heckscher‐Ohlin‐Samuelson (HOS), two‐good model of a small, open economy. In the first version both goods are for final consumption. In the second, one good is an imported intermediate input into the other. In both versions, economic theory suggests that an improvement in the terms of trade raises welfare (consumption) but leaves aggregate output (GDP) unchanged. I then show that a national income accountant applying the principles of the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA) would reach the same conclusions. This follows from a continuous‐time analysis using Divisia index numbers. However in the case where imports are intermediate inputs and competition is imperfect, an improvement in the terms of trade does raise GDP: the size of the effect depends on the size of the markup of price over marginal revenue. I argue that the continuous time Divisia approach is the right framework for national income accounting, even though it can only be implemented approximately in practice. If the aim is to find the best approximation to the Divisia index, then the chained Fisher index (as used in the US and Canadian national accounts) or the chained Törnqvist are better approximations than is the chained Laspeyres (as used in Europe)." @default.
• W4366551344 created "2023-04-22" @default.
• W4366551344 creator A5018989126 @default.
• W4366551344 date "2023-04-20" @default.
• W4366551344 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
• W4366551344 title "The effect of changes in the terms of trade on GDP and welfare: A Divisia approach to the System of National Accounts" @default.
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• W4366551344 doi "https://doi.org/10.1111/manc.12437" @default.
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