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• W4367671618 abstract "ObjectivesTo identify prognostic models which estimate the risk of critical COVID-19 in hospitalized patients and to assess their validation properties.Study Design and SettingWe conducted a systematic review in Medline (up to January 2021) of studies developing or updating a model that estimated the risk of critical COVID-19, defined as death, admission to intensive care unit, and/or use of mechanical ventilation during admission. Models were validated in two datasets with different backgrounds (HM [private Spanish hospital network], n = 1,753, and ICS [public Catalan health system], n = 1,104), by assessing discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration (plots).ResultsWe validated 18 prognostic models. Discrimination was good in nine of them (AUCs ≥ 80%) and higher in those predicting mortality (AUCs 65%–87%) than those predicting intensive care unit admission or a composite outcome (AUCs 53%–78%). Calibration was poor in all models providing outcome's probabilities and good in four models providing a point-based score. These four models used mortality as outcome and included age, oxygen saturation, and C-reactive protein among their predictors.ConclusionThe validity of models predicting critical COVID-19 by using only routinely collected predictors is variable. Four models showed good discrimination and calibration when externally validated and are recommended for their use." @default.
• W4367671618 created "2023-05-03" @default.
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• W4367671618 date "2023-07-01" @default.
• W4367671618 modified "2023-10-18" @default.
• W4367671618 title "Validity of prognostic models of critical COVID-19 is variable. A systematic review with external validation" @default.
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• W4367671618 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclinepi.2023.04.011" @default.
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