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• W4376618107 abstract "Abstract Transmission heterogeneity plays a critical role in the dynamics of an epidemic. During an outbreak of an emerging infectious disease, efforts to characterize transmission heterogeneity are generally limited to quantifications during a small outbreak or a limited number of generations of a larger outbreak. Understanding how transmission heterogeneity itself varies over the course of a large enduring outbreak not only improves understanding of observed disease dynamics but also informs public health strategy and response. In this study, we employ a method, adaptable to other emerging infectious disease outbreaks, to quantify spatiotemporal variation in transmission heterogeneity for the 2022 mpox outbreak in the United States. Based on past research on mpox and following reports of potential superspreading events early in this outbreak, we expected to find high transmission heterogeneity as quantified by the dispersion parameter of the offspring distribution, k . Our methods use maximum likelihood estimation to fit a negative binomial distribution to transmission chain offspring distributions informed by a large mpox contact tracing dataset. We find that, while estimates of transmission heterogeneity varied across the outbreak with spatiotemporal pockets of higher heterogeneity, overall transmission heterogeneity was low. When testing our methods on simulated data from an outbreak with high transmission heterogeneity, k estimate accuracy depended on the contact tracing data completeness. Because the actual contact tracing data had high incompleteness, our values of k estimated from the empirical data may be artificially high. However, it is also possible that our estimates accurately reflect low transmission heterogeneity for the United States mpox outbreak." @default.
• W4376618107 created "2023-05-17" @default.
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• W4376618107 date "2023-05-14" @default.
• W4376618107 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
• W4376618107 title "Characterizing spatiotemporal variation in transmission heterogeneity during the 2022 mpox outbreak in the USA" @default.
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• W4376618107 doi "https://doi.org/10.1101/2023.05.10.23289580" @default.
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