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- W4377821798 abstract "Abstract Scientific data concerning climate change are critical for designing mitigation and adaptation strategies. Equally important is how stakeholders perceive climate change because perceptions influence decision-making. However, perceptions may not be consistent with data. In this paper, we employed spatially-delineated primary surveys of corn and soybean farmers located on western frontier of the U.S. Corn Belt to analyse biases observed in their local weather change perceptions as compared with meteorological data. We found systematic biases in farmers’ perceptions of past changes for three distinct weather indicators: temperature, precipitation, and drought frequency. Farmers predominantly over-estimated temperature and drought levels and under-estimated precipitation levels relative to the past data records. Farmers’ age and income, not education levels, were statistically significantly associated with their weather perceptions. A Chi-squared test of independence provided evidence that farmer misperceptions about past changes in precipitation and droughts were correlated with select land use and farm management decisions, which is consistent with the notion of “motivated beliefs”. Comparative analysis of past and future weather change perceptions revealed a tendency of regression to the mean. Our findings suggest that it is important to consider subjective weather beliefs in addition to historical data or scientific predictions in policy design process. JEL Codes: C21; D22; D91; Q15; R14" @default.
- W4377821798 created "2023-05-24" @default.
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- W4377821798 date "2023-05-23" @default.
- W4377821798 modified "2023-10-17" @default.
- W4377821798 title "Assessing systematic biases in farmers’ local weather change perceptions" @default.
- W4377821798 doi "https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-2794689/v1" @default.
- W4377821798 hasPublicationYear "2023" @default.
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