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• W4378604310 abstract "TECHNOLOGY AND CULTURE Book Reviews 975 extraction and refining of ever lower-grade ores, will the standard of living suffer; or will it rise, simply because economic growth based on technological advance is more important? This crucial question is addressed quantitatively—and bravely—in this pioneering collaboration of four Yale economists and resource experts. They focus on copper, as a paradigm of a scarce metal, con­ sidering all the details of geology, recycling, and substitution (e.g., by aluminum, optical fiber, etc.) that affect U.S. supply and demand. The methodology is innovative, substituting a linear programming prob­ lem for the daunting task of simulating a competitive market over the next 150 years. The results depend on the assumptions, as the authors readily admit. (For example, the book appeared before the discovery of high-temperature superconductivity.) Nonetheless, the base case yields specific predictions: Copper ex­ traction rate peaks at about the year 2100, but by 2070 copper mining of common rock (with maximum ore grade of 0.05 percent) becomes necessary (currently mined ore has a copper concentration of 0.5 percent). Recycling becomes big business as the price rises from $2 per kilogram to $120 (when common-rock mining takes over). But because of recycling and substitution, the macroeconomic impact is small; the estimated “drag” on GNP growth is about 0.03 percent per annum owing to all scarce metals, including copper—hardly a signif­ icant economic influence. An explicit assumption is the more or less simultaneous disappear­ ance of high-grade resources all over the world—a consequence of free trade. I accept this premise but want to point to a logical con­ sequence, namely, the disappearance ofglobal resource dependence— quite contrary to accepted wisdom that predicts increasing global inter­ dependence. I suggest that the current interdependence, whether for oil or other natural resources, is ephemeral. In the next century, the worldview is bound to change as countries, including the United States, perforce acquire resource autarky. S. Fred Singer Dr. Singer is chief scientist of the U.S. Department of Transportation. His “The Price of World Oil” (Annual Review of Energy 8 [1984]) projects future oil prices, con­ sidering substitution, but no recycling, and quasi-monopolistic market conditions. The History of the British Coal industry. Vol. 5: 1946—1982: The Nation­ alized Industry. By William Ashworth with Mark Pegg. New York: Oxford University Press, 1986. Pp. xxi + 710; illustrations, tables, notes, appendixes, bibliography, index. $98.00. This is the final volume of the National Coal Board’s five-volume History ofthe British Coal Industry, but only the third published. It covers the nationalization period 1946-82. William Ashworth examines the 976 Book Reviews TECHNOLOGY AND CULTURE movement, not in the narrow sense of costs and revenues or success and failure, but in relation to energy production versus consumption and, more importantly, the movement’s objectives and the context in which the government set them. The result is a generally sympathetic treatment. Nationalization began in July 1946 with the assistance of the newly elected Labour government and the mining unions. But the move­ ment had much wider support because of the coal industry’s sad shape and inability to provide the coal Britain needed for economic recovery without drastic reorganization. With tension high between owners and miners and the industry so unattractive to prospective workers, no passionate resistance occurred. Nationalization became a panacea for past and present problems and a promise for future efficiency and harmony. It was a response to the perceived shortcomings of private ownership. The government did not nationalize all mines. During this period its NCB left to private firms the operation of some smaller mines and closed others. Because of rising technological costs, private operation of larger mines also became a remote possibility by 1970, though Ashworth admits the lack of recent empirical evidence with which to compare the merits of public and private ownership of the coal mines. Nor was the NCB exactly a commercial undertaking. It was to supply the public with coal at favorable terms, to look after its employees’ welfare, and to make a reasonable profit. During the nationalization period, both internal and external forces produced a change in energy policy..." @default.
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• W4378604310 date "1988-10-01" @default.
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• W4378604310 title "The History of the British Coal industry. Vol. 5: 1946–1982: The Nationalized Industry by William Ashworth, Mark Pegg" @default.
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