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- W4379401215 abstract "Objective: Detection of trend, its analytical description and forecasting of time series for short-term and long-term periods for modeling the development of epidemiological processes in syphilitic infection. Materials and methods: MATLAB application package was used to develop an automatic analysis system for time series monitoring of the development of epidemiological processes for their forecasting. The Financial Toolbox library was used to analyze time series. Results: Mathematical models of trends were obtained for the existing time series, and the effectiveness of using an exponential trend in the declining phase of the syphilis epidemic was shown. The coefficient of determination R2 = 0.9956 indicates that the model explains 99.56% of the variance (the approximation error is 0.44%). However, such high accuracy of approximation (and accordingly, forecast accuracy) is true only if a new outbreak of the epidemic is unlikely during the forecast period. If the real data start deviating from the forecast (increase to at least 10,000 cases per year), a new wave of the infection process can be detected." @default.
- W4379401215 created "2023-06-06" @default.
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- W4379401215 date "2023-01-01" @default.
- W4379401215 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W4379401215 title "MODELING THE DEVELOPMENT OF EPIDEMIOLOGICAL PROCESSES USING THE EXAMPLE OF SYPHILITIC INFECTION" @default.
- W4379401215 doi "https://doi.org/10.33743/2308-1066-2023-1-25-29" @default.
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