Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W4381569398> ?p ?o ?g. }
Showing items 1 to 77 of
77
with 100 items per page.
- W4381569398 abstract "This study using VECM methodology constructs a model of the Russian economy from 2010 through 2022 across four variables: consumer price index, ruble exchange rate against the US dollar, consumer demand, and the RUONIA interest rate. A short-term inflation forecast through the end of 2022, which predicts that annual inflation will drop to 10.1 % by December 2022, is arrived at based on this model. The model is then applied to determine the contribution to March inflation from the price shock that was not attributable to the dynamics of the fundamental variables. The point estimate of the shock came to 6.6% of the 7.4% seasonally adjusted March inflation, and this implies that about 89% of the inflation surge was due to one-off factors (logistics, switching to other suppliers, etc.). The accuracy of the VECM model forecast in the current economic situation (high inflation volatility) turns out to be higher than the accuracy of univariate benchmark models over a horizon of one to three months. Forecasts derived from the proposed VECM model applied to vintage data for the period from December 2021 to June 2022 turned out to be close to the consensus forecasts of analysts and the Bank of Russia, which had been based on a comparable information set. The forecasts constructed with the model project a significant slowdown in inflation based on data starting from April, an outcome which explains the rapid key rate cut by the Bank of Russia from 20% in early April to 8% by the end of July. Even when inflationary trends are rapidly changing, the proposed factor model facilitates prompt and relatively accurate short-term inflation forecasts, which can be used to inform monetary policy choices" @default.
- W4381569398 created "2023-06-22" @default.
- W4381569398 creator A5005173277 @default.
- W4381569398 date "2022-01-01" @default.
- W4381569398 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W4381569398 title "Short-Term Inflation Forecasting in the Russian Economy" @default.
- W4381569398 doi "https://doi.org/10.18288/1994-5124-2022-5-8-25" @default.
- W4381569398 hasPublicationYear "2022" @default.
- W4381569398 type Work @default.
- W4381569398 citedByCount "0" @default.
- W4381569398 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
- W4381569398 hasAuthorship W4381569398A5005173277 @default.
- W4381569398 hasBestOaLocation W43815693981 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C112353543 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C121332964 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C126285488 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C126322002 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C136764020 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C139719470 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C149782125 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C161584116 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C162324750 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C175025494 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C199163554 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C200941418 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C2776988154 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C2777382242 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C2778083465 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C2781300812 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C33332235 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C41008148 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C71924100 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C91602232 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConcept C97366136 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C105795698 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C112353543 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C121332964 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C126285488 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C126322002 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C136764020 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C139719470 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C149782125 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C161584116 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C162324750 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C175025494 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C199163554 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C200941418 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C2776988154 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C2777382242 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C2778083465 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C2781300812 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C33332235 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C33923547 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C41008148 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C71924100 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C91602232 @default.
- W4381569398 hasConceptScore W4381569398C97366136 @default.
- W4381569398 hasIssue "5" @default.
- W4381569398 hasLocation W43815693981 @default.
- W4381569398 hasOpenAccess W4381569398 @default.
- W4381569398 hasPrimaryLocation W43815693981 @default.
- W4381569398 hasRelatedWork W1790401536 @default.
- W4381569398 hasRelatedWork W1980789585 @default.
- W4381569398 hasRelatedWork W2023832298 @default.
- W4381569398 hasRelatedWork W2032848229 @default.
- W4381569398 hasRelatedWork W2080248739 @default.
- W4381569398 hasRelatedWork W2615622298 @default.
- W4381569398 hasRelatedWork W3123273648 @default.
- W4381569398 hasRelatedWork W3194964284 @default.
- W4381569398 hasRelatedWork W4312221133 @default.
- W4381569398 hasRelatedWork W4377234413 @default.
- W4381569398 hasVolume "17" @default.
- W4381569398 isParatext "false" @default.
- W4381569398 isRetracted "false" @default.
- W4381569398 workType "article" @default.