Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W4383377637> ?p ?o ?g. }
Showing items 1 to 74 of
74
with 100 items per page.
- W4383377637 abstract "Multi-model ensemble (MME) methods, i.e. combining ensemble forecasts produced by different models, have been shown to improve the skill of prediction at different scales. One important research question is how to best construct such multi-model ensemble. This is one of the challenges addressed by the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) project for the subseasonal scale, and also the focus of this study. To answer this question, we compare two methods based on barycenters. The main idea is to consider the ensemble forecasts as discrete probability distributions, and to use a barycentre to combine them. We compare two barycenters based on different distances, the L2 and the Wasserstein distance. Applying an L2-barycentre on ensemble forecasts is equivalent to concatenating their members, i.e. to the well-known MME method known as “pooling”. The Wasserstein distance corresponds to the cost of the optimal transport between two distributions and has interesting properties in the distribution space. The two methods potentially lead to very different multi-model ensembles. The barycenters also allow us to attribute weights to the models. These weights are learned from the data (using cross-validation on the forecasts) in order to optimize the skill of the barycenter-ensembles. In order to investigate the benefits of these two multi-model ensemble methods, both methods are applied to the combination of two models from the S2S forecasts, namely the European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) models. The skill of the two barycenter-ensembles are evaluated for the prediction of weekly 2m-temperature over Europe for seven winters with respect to different metrics. Although the ECMWF model has an overall better performance than NCEP, the barycenter-ensembles are generally able to outperform both. However, the best ensemble depends on the chosen metric and on the location. Focusing on the combination of two models has allowed us to investigate the impact of the model’s weights on the performance of the barycenters. It also provides encouraging results for the next step, the combination of several models." @default.
- W4383377637 created "2023-07-07" @default.
- W4383377637 creator A5000088346 @default.
- W4383377637 creator A5005451963 @default.
- W4383377637 creator A5051249358 @default.
- W4383377637 creator A5064640398 @default.
- W4383377637 date "2023-07-06" @default.
- W4383377637 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W4383377637 title "A barycenter-based approach for the multi-model combination of ensemble forecasts: an application to the sub-seasonal forecasts of 2m-temperature over Europe" @default.
- W4383377637 doi "https://doi.org/10.5194/ems2023-483" @default.
- W4383377637 hasPublicationYear "2023" @default.
- W4383377637 type Work @default.
- W4383377637 citedByCount "0" @default.
- W4383377637 crossrefType "posted-content" @default.
- W4383377637 hasAuthorship W4383377637A5000088346 @default.
- W4383377637 hasAuthorship W4383377637A5005451963 @default.
- W4383377637 hasAuthorship W4383377637A5051249358 @default.
- W4383377637 hasAuthorship W4383377637A5064640398 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C105795698 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C110121322 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C119898033 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C120665830 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C121332964 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C127313418 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C134306372 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C149441793 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C149782125 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C154945302 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C192209626 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C205649164 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C2778755073 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C33923547 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C41008148 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C45942800 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C49204034 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C51865526 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C58640448 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConcept C70437156 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C105795698 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C110121322 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C119898033 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C120665830 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C121332964 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C127313418 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C134306372 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C149441793 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C149782125 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C154945302 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C192209626 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C205649164 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C2778755073 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C33923547 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C41008148 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C45942800 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C49204034 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C51865526 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C58640448 @default.
- W4383377637 hasConceptScore W4383377637C70437156 @default.
- W4383377637 hasLocation W43833776371 @default.
- W4383377637 hasOpenAccess W4383377637 @default.
- W4383377637 hasPrimaryLocation W43833776371 @default.
- W4383377637 hasRelatedWork W2051195066 @default.
- W4383377637 hasRelatedWork W2065350539 @default.
- W4383377637 hasRelatedWork W2073426921 @default.
- W4383377637 hasRelatedWork W2534181578 @default.
- W4383377637 hasRelatedWork W2916519550 @default.
- W4383377637 hasRelatedWork W2991435166 @default.
- W4383377637 hasRelatedWork W3211218743 @default.
- W4383377637 hasRelatedWork W4200554234 @default.
- W4383377637 hasRelatedWork W4322010236 @default.
- W4383377637 hasRelatedWork W45170056 @default.
- W4383377637 isParatext "false" @default.
- W4383377637 isRetracted "false" @default.
- W4383377637 workType "article" @default.