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- W4385064962 abstract "Based on the simulations of 30 CMIP6 models, this paper evaluates their performance in simulating the linkage between the winter Asian-Pacific Oscillation (APO) and precipitation over southern China (SC). Results show that 12 out of the 30 models can reproduce well the observed inverse relationship featuring a positive APO phase corresponding to a decrease in SC precipitation. Associated with the positive APO phase, an anomalous anticyclonic circulation dominates the southern part of Asia in the upper troposphere, and an anomalous cyclonic circulation prevails particularly in the lower troposphere of the South China Sea and the Malay Archipelago. Accordingly, the East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ) shifts northward, and low-level northeasterly anomalies appear over SC, which yield anomalous descending motion and water vapor flux divergence in SC, respectively, hence decreasing the in-situ precipitation. Using the ensemble of the 12 models, the future relationship between the winter APO and SC precipitation under the SSP5-8.5 scenario was further projected. The projection indicates that the APO connection with SC precipitation will still be significant, but weakened slightly, during the second half of the 21st century as compared to the present. Such a weakening may result from the weaker linkage between SC precipitation and the meridional displacement of the EAWJ. 评估了30个CMIP6模式对冬季亚洲–太平洋涛动 (APO) 与中国南方降水关系的模拟性能.结果表明, 有12个模式能够再现APO与中国南方降水间的显著负相关关系.当APO位于正位相时, 东亚西风急流北移, 中国南方呈现异常下沉运动和水汽通量辐散, 不利于降水的发生.进一步利用这12个模式, 集合预估了SSP5-8.5情景下冬季APO与中国南方降水的联系.21世纪下半叶期间, 两者的关系仍显著, 但比现在略有减弱.这种减弱可能由于东亚急流位置经向摆动同中国南方降水的联系减弱所致." @default.
- W4385064962 created "2023-07-23" @default.
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- W4385064962 date "2023-09-01" @default.
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- W4385064962 title "Linkage between the Asian-Pacific Oscillation and winter precipitation over southern China: CMIP6 simulation and projection" @default.
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- W4385064962 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aosl.2023.100401" @default.
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