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- W4385143461 abstract "<strong class=journal-contentHeaderColor>Abstract.</strong> How much Antarctic ice shelf basal melt rates can increase in response to global warming remains an open question. Here we describe the response of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic ice shelf cavities to an abrupt change to high-end atmospheric conditions typical of the late 23<sup>rd</sup> century under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. To achieve this objective, we first present and evaluate a new 0.25° global configuration of the NEMO ocean and sea ice model. Our present-day simulations demonstrate good agreement with observational data for key variables such as temperature, salinity, and ice shelf melt rates, despite remaining difficulties to simulate the thermocline and melt variability in the Amundsen Sea. The ocean response to the high-end atmospheric perturbation includes a strengthening and extension of the Ross and Weddell gyres and a quasi-disappearance of sea ice, with subsequent decrease in production of High Salinity Shelf Water and increased intrusion of warmer water onto the continental shelves. This induces a substantial increase in ice shelf basal melt rates, particularly in the coldest seas, with a total ice shelf basal mass loss rising from 1,180 to 15,700 Gt yr<sup>-1</sup> and an Antarctica averaged ice shelf melt rate increasing from 0.80 m yr<sup>-1</sup> to 10.64 m yr<sup>-1</sup>. In the perturbed simulation, most ice shelves around Antarctica experience conditions that are currently found in the Amundsen Sea, while the Amundsen Sea also warms by 2 °C. These projections can be used as a base to calibrate basal melt parameterisations used in long-term ice sheet projections." @default.
- W4385143461 created "2023-07-23" @default.
- W4385143461 creator A5023159094 @default.
- W4385143461 date "2023-07-21" @default.
- W4385143461 modified "2023-10-14" @default.
- W4385143461 title "Comment on egusphere-2023-1606" @default.
- W4385143461 doi "https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1606-rc1" @default.
- W4385143461 hasPublicationYear "2023" @default.
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