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- W4385432824 abstract "This paper starts with an estimation of the effects of bank credit on economic growth in Mauritius. Existing empirical studies in Mauritius have used fixed coefficient models (see Jankee, 2006; Seetanah, 2008; Nowbutsing et al., 2010) to estimate the effects of bank credit on economic growth. However, the relationship between bank credit and economic growth may have changed over time because of different financial policies adopted in the country since independence in 1968. In that respect, because the effect of policies on the relationship between finance and growth may not be constant, we use the Time-Varying Coefficient model of Swamy and von zur Muehlen (2020) to estimate the time-varying total effects of bank credit on economic growth from 1970 to 2019. The Time-Varying Coefficient model of Swamy and von zur Muehlen (2020) is superior to extant models using fixed and variable coefficients because it estimates total effects and does not ignore the correlation between the error term and the explanatory variables, and hence also considers the indirect effects of the explanatory variables on the dependent variable. The results show a non-linear relationship between bank credit and economic growth with a non-monotonic decline of the total effects of the former on the latter from 1986 onwards. In the second part of the paper, to gain further insights into the reasons behind that non-monotonic decline, we introduce a novel theory in Africa known as the quantity theory of disaggregated credit and use its methodology to disaggregate total bank credit into two types namely, bank credit for GDP transactions and bank credit for non-GDP transactions before estimating the total effects of the former on economic growth. The best model of the total effects of bank credit for GDP transactions on economic growth shows that bank credit for GDP transactions, in particular to investment in machines (IM), or more broadly to manufacturing, spearheaded high growth rates during the country’s miracle years in the 1980s. In fact, during the period 1973-1993, the Bank of Mauritius had a system of credit guidance in place, which also coincided with the strong effects of bank credit for GDP transactions on economic growth during those years. The removal of this policy instrument from the monetary policy toolkit of the Bank of Mauritius as from 1993 coincided, too, with a decrease in average real economic growth. A corollary to the results is that policies that guide bank lending towards productive investment can be very effective in stimulating economic growth, more so than conventional interest rate policies, to which credit guidance can act as a complement and not necessarily as a substitute." @default.
- W4385432824 created "2023-08-01" @default.
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- W4385432824 date "2023-01-01" @default.
- W4385432824 modified "2023-10-16" @default.
- W4385432824 title "Can Bank Credit Explain the Economic Miracle of Mauritius? Policy Lessons for the Central Bank" @default.
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- W4385432824 doi "https://doi.org/10.4236/ojbm.2023.114105" @default.
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