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- W4385457966 abstract "ABSTRACTRecent research is ambiguous about the status of Australian regional elections, seeing them as conforming to the second-order election model but also as affected by regional politics. We clarify this ambiguity, drawing on aggregate and individual level data to explore the variable impact of national and regional incumbents on regional elections. Although national incumbents seem to affect Australian regional elections, under some circumstances regional incumbent parties are able to electorally outperform their national incumbent counterparts. We suggest that Australia’s uncoordinated national and regional election cycles and federal distribution of policy responsibilities both help to focus voter attention on the performance of regional incumbents. The way that regional incumbents manage key policy issues, including Covid-19 in recent years, appears to matter for their electoral support, making Australian regional elections more than second-order events.KEYWORDS: Incumbencysecond-order election effectsAustraliafederalismelection cycles Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 In the Australian context, federal elections refer to elections at the national level, while state and territory elections refer to regional elections. This may be confusing for readers outside Australia, particularly in Europe, who commonly understand ‘state’ or ‘state-wide’ elections to refer to national contests and sub-state elections to refer to regional contests. In this paper, we use ‘regional’ and ‘state and territory’ elections interchangeably.2 ‘Liberal National Party Coalition’ and ‘LNP’ are used in this paper to refer to the main non-Labor party or parties in all Australian jurisdictions but the terms are (necessary) simplifications. The Liberal and National parties are separate parties; however, they have operated in a formal Coalition at national level and in the state of New South Wales since the 1920s. In the state of Queensland, the Liberal and National parties were in a long-standing Coalition but amalgamated in 2008, forming the Liberal National Party. In some states and territories, notably Western Australia, the Liberal and National parties operate relatively independently. In others, there is no National Party and the main non-Labor party is the Liberal Party.3 Australian national, state and territory elections all use versions of preferential voting, in which voters are either required or permitted to express preferences for more than one candidate by numbering ballot papers 1, 2, 3 etc. The Australian national parliament is bicameral, as are five of the six state parliaments. Queensland and the two territories have unicameral parliaments. Where there are two houses, the lower house is the chamber that determines the government. With the exception on Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory, lower house or unicameral elections involve contests for single member electoral districts. Upper house elections are significant but, in line with most research on regional elections (see Hough and Jeffery Citation2006a; Schakel Citation2011; Dandoy and Schakel Citation2013), they are not discussed in this paper.4 On average, three Green MPs have been elected to the 25 seat Tasmanian House of Assembly at state elections since 1998, while no Green MP has been elected to the Australian House of Representatives from the five Tasmanian electorates.5 The other five federations were the United States, Canada, Switzerland, Germany and India.6 This was the 2013 Western Australian state election. Both the Labor and Coalition votes were higher at regional than national level (ALP 33.13 percent versus 31.18 percent; Coalition 53.15 percent versus 50.60 percent)." @default.
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- W4385457966 date "2023-08-01" @default.
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- W4385457966 title "Australian state and territory elections: regional incumbents matter" @default.
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- W4385457966 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/13597566.2023.2240234" @default.
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