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- W4385583265 abstract "This paper examines the post-forecasting issue where predictions influence behavior and render original forecasts obsolete. Using game-theory models, we analyze two player types: econometricians with predictions and normal individuals. Our study suggests that late-moving individuals should not participate, while early-mover probabilities in Bayesian games are beneficial. Improved prediction accuracy benefits econometricians but has little impact on normal individuals. Obtaining prediction information incurs a positive cost, overlooked with high accuracy. These findings, supported by preference, uncertainty, information price, and market efficiency analyses, have important implications for investors using forecasting information in financial markets." @default.
- W4385583265 created "2023-08-05" @default.
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- W4385583265 date "2023-12-01" @default.
- W4385583265 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W4385583265 title "Post Financial Forecasting Game Theory and Decision Making" @default.
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- W4385583265 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104288" @default.
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