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- W4386195008 abstract "Decisions are made for the future, Futures Studies investigate possible fan of futures scenarios and its probabilities for easier making decision processes, taking into consideration unprecedented future events (wildcards) for clear vision of the future. Markov Chain method generally used as a mean of characterizing or summarizing data and of projecting the time path of certain variables. The main ideas of this paper rely on using the slope and curvature of variables historical data time series to convert it to historical states time series, followed by Association Rule Mining to build a Markov Chain Transition Probability Matrix from the variable historical states time series. Finally we introduce hybridization between the Futures Studies and Markov chain by building a Dynamic Multiplicative Model for Probability Impact Analysis. Our introduced methodologies allow studying the occurrence impact of multiple wildcards on multiple variables states' probabilities at future years." @default.
- W4386195008 created "2023-08-27" @default.
- W4386195008 date "2014-06-01" @default.
- W4386195008 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W4386195008 title "Futures Studies and Markov Chain Hybrid Dynamic Multiplicative Model for Probability Impact Analysis" @default.
- W4386195008 doi "https://doi.org/10.21608/esju.2014.314441" @default.
- W4386195008 hasPublicationYear "2014" @default.
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