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- W4386497470 abstract "Abstract Flooding represents the greatest natural threat to the UK, presenting severe risk to populations along coastlines and floodplains through extreme tidal surge and hydrometeorological events. Climate change is projected to significantly elevate flood risk through increased severity and frequency of occurrences, which will be exacerbated by external drivers of risk such as property development and population growth throughout floodplains. This investigation explores the entire flood hazard modelling chain, utilising the nonparametric bias correction of UKCP18 regional climate projections, the distributed HBV-TYN hydrological model and HEC-RAS hydraulic model to assess future manifestation of flood hazard within the Broadland Catchment, UK. When assessing the independent impact of extreme river discharge and storm surge events as well as the impact of a compound event of the two along a high emission scenario, exponential increases in hazard extent over time were observed. The flood extent increases from 197 km 2 in 1990 to 200 km 2 in 2030, and 208 km 2 in 2070. In parallel, exponential population exposure increases were found from 13,917 (1990) to 14,088 (2030) to 18,785 (2070). This methodology could see integration into policy-based flood risk management by use of the developed hazard modelling tool for future planning and suitability of existing infrastructure at a catchment scale." @default.
- W4386497470 created "2023-09-07" @default.
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- W4386497470 date "2023-09-07" @default.
- W4386497470 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W4386497470 title "Quantifying future changes of flood hazards within the Broadland catchment in the UK" @default.
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- W4386497470 doi "https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3314928/v1" @default.
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