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- W4387013940 abstract "Abstract There is a palpable shift in mainstream attitude towards geoengineering, seen now as a potential part of a climate policy mix. Still, no-one wants to get on a slippery slope, compounding the risks, and, therefore, we should ask ourselves what is the minimal geoengineering that we can get away with. Such questions lead mathematically to inverse problems. Solving them is feasible only with lightweight models of the climate system, various types of which are nowadays often referred to as emulators – some more accurate than others. Here we develop an emulator using nonlinear response theory and apply it to two paradigmatic inverse problems relevant to climate policy. First, we investigate the attainability of the coveted Paris15 temperature targets. Second, through a simple multi-stable model, we determine what it takes to save the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) as we know it. Our results suggest, first, that solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering, most commonly envisaged as sulfate aerosol injection, will likely have to be part of our climate policy mix, because realistic CO2 abatement effort to come alone cannot restrict global temperatures below 1.5 ◦C change or below even higher levels of change. Minimal sulfate use for a threshold target is achieved by immediate and abrupt deployment. Second, we demonstrate also the importance of precisely knowing not only the stable but also the unstable so-called Melancholia states of climate tipping elements, such as the GrIS, as miscalculations can lead to acting too late – whether it is CO2 abatement on the short term or SRM geoengineering deployed in the far future." @default.
- W4387013940 created "2023-09-26" @default.
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- W4387013940 date "2023-09-25" @default.
- W4387013940 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W4387013940 title "Inverse problems for climate policy mixes including geoengineering" @default.
- W4387013940 doi "https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3302963/v2" @default.
- W4387013940 hasPublicationYear "2023" @default.
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