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• W4387079767 endingPage "130259" @default.
• W4387079767 startingPage "130259" @default.
• W4387079767 abstract "Droughts are a cyclical feature of Australia's climate that have compounding impacts on agricultural productivity and wellbeing. Understanding anticipated drought conditions in context of antecedent observations is critical to providing early warning of drought. In this study we paired probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecasts with satellite blended precipitation data and modelled soil moisture and evapotranspiration. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to objectively combine precipitation, soil moisture and evapotranspiration percentiles. The final Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) maps overlay forecasting information with the multivariate PCA-weighted maps. We produced 1-, 3- and 6-month maps and analysed drought concern over the common period of overlap between all datasets (1982-2018). In this study period, the 1982-1983 Ash Wednesday tinder drought and the 1997-2001 Millennium drought were investigated. We validated PCA-weighted maps with satellite vegetation data and found performance was strongest over the Murray Darling Basin region (R = 0.63, p= 0.009) and poorest over Central interior Australia (insignificant correlations). We also validated PCA-weighted maps using agricultural commodity data from ABARES. Significant negative correlations at 95%, 99% and 99.9% confidence intervals were found between %-Area in drought category and crop cultivation area; export volume/value; crop yield; and rural debt. Our findings indicate that early warning of drought can be categorised by concern – wherein dry antecedent conditions and dry forecasted conditions are of the highest concern. The developed proof-of-concept DEWS contributes to the growing body of proactive drought research. In a drought vulnerable future, operationalising and communicating drought early warnings will be critical to reducing the harmful impacts of drought on communities, economies, and environments." @default.
• W4387079767 created "2023-09-28" @default.
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• W4387079767 date "2023-11-01" @default.
• W4387079767 modified "2023-10-06" @default.
• W4387079767 title "Pairing monitoring datasets with probabilistic forecasts to provide early warning of drought in Australia" @default.
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• W4387079767 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.130259" @default.
• W4387079767 hasPublicationYear "2023" @default.
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