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- W4387641015 abstract "We examine the opportunities and challenges of expert judgment in social sciences, scrutinizing the way social scientists make predictions. While social scientists show above chance accuracy in predicting lab-based phenomena, they often struggle to predict real-world societal changes. We argue that most causal models used in social sciences are oversimplified, confuse levels of analysis to which a model applies, misalign nature of the models with the nature of the phenomena, and fail to consider factors beyond the scientist’s pet theory. Taking cues from physical sciences and meteorology, we advocate for an approach that integrates broad foundational models with context-specific time series data. We call for a shift in the social sciences towards more precise, daring predictions, and greater intellectual humility." @default.
- W4387641015 created "2023-10-15" @default.
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- W4387641015 date "2023-10-13" @default.
- W4387641015 modified "2023-10-15" @default.
- W4387641015 title "When expert predictions fail" @default.
- W4387641015 doi "https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/my24e" @default.
- W4387641015 hasPublicationYear "2023" @default.
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