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• W44559568 abstract "INTRODUCTION To estimate the accumulation needed at retirement to fund retirement income, typical deterministic planning models utilize discounted cash flow calculations incorporating actuarially projected life expectancies, estimates of future portfolio growth rates, and inflation projections. Such calculations are complex and often costly. To obtain such estimates some people seek advice from financial planners. Others may purchase financial software or use Internet computer models. These options entail costs, including commissions to planners, the purchase price of software, as well as an investment in time needed to understand the financial models. Also, there is a risk of making input errors that can lead to inaccurate results. As a consequence, some people simply postpone or avoid determining how much they will need to accumulate to fund their retirements. This may have an even higher cost, namely, not having sufficient funds to retire at the desired time and therefore needing to prolong employment. Another critical issue in retirement planning is inflation. As discussed in the literature review, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics developed an experimental consumer price index (CPI) for consumers over 62 years of age, designated CPI-E (E for experimental). This index indicates that while prices as measured by the CPI rose 82 percent from December 1982 through the end of 2000, the prices as measured by the CPI-E rose 89.6 percent. The higher cost of living for the elderly primarily is a result of the rapid increases in health-care costs. The cost of medical care has increased much more rapidly than other costs, and the elderly spend relatively more on medical care than do their younger counterparts. Furthermore, there is the potential for development of new high-priced blockbuster drugs and life-prolonging/saving medical treatments that will be utilized primarily by the elderly. Given this scenario, the elderly cannot be conservative when it comes to estimating the future impact of inflation. Longevity also must be addressed in retirement planning. Life expectancies have increased and, consistent with the rapid advances in pharmacology and medical procedures, there is the potential that they will do so even more rapidly. This means that some (especially educated professionals who don't smoke and are exercising regularly) may live a very long time after retiring. It is useful to note that the number of elderly is increasing rapidly, even from year-to-year. Consequently, to avoid the risk of running short of funds during retirement, it is important to plan with the expectation of living for a very long time. A simple and useful tool for estimating how much one must accumulate at retirement to support a desired income stream is Gordon's Constant-Growth Dividend Valuation Model. This paper demonstrates how the model can be easily applied to determine the retirement accumulation that is necessary to provide for a desired level of retirement income. In addition, the model allows for the incorporation of cost-of-living increases designed to compensate for the effects of inflation during retirement. Furthermore, since the model is based on providing a perpetual income stream, the results are conservative in nature (since no one lives into perpetuity) while, at the same time, providing for the contingency that rapid changes in medical care could result in unexpectedly long periods of retirement. Finally, since the model is perpetual in nature, within the limits of the IRS regulations covering the distribution of tax-deferred annuities, it can help to maintain estate values thereby providing for future generations. LITERATURE REVIEW Gordon's Constant-Growth Dividend Valuation model is based on the work of Myron J. Gordon (1960) in the early 1960s on the Optimum Dividend Rate. His research also involves mathematical modeling of corporate investing, financing, and valuation (1962) as well as the theory of investment (1964). …" @default.
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• W44559568 title "Application of Gordon's Constant-Growth Dividend Valuation Model to Estimating Retirement Funding Requirements" @default.
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