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• W45843394 abstract "In 1824 the creation of institutions that constrained the monarch’s ability to unilaterally tax, spend, and debase the currency put Brazil on a path toward a revolution in public finance, roughly analogous to the financial consequences of England’s Glorious Revolution. This credible commitment to honor sovereign debt resulted in successful long-term funded borrowing at home and abroad from the 1820s through the 1880s that was unrivalled in Latin America. Some domestic bonds, denominated in the home currency and bearing exchange clauses, eventually circulated in European financial markets. The share of total debt accounted for by long-term funded issues grew, and domestic debt came to dominate foreign debt. Sovereign debt yields fell over time in London and Rio de Janeiro, and the cost of new borrowing declined on average. The market’s assessment of the probability of default tended to decrease. Imperial Brazil enjoyed favorable conditions for borrowing, and escaped the strong form of “original sin” stressed by recent work on sovereign debt. The development of vibrant private financial markets did not, however, follow from the enhanced credibility of government debt. Private finance in Imperial Brazil suffered from politicized market interventions that undermined the development of domestic capital markets. Private interest rates remained high, entry into commercial banking was heavily restricted, and limited-liability joint-stock companies were tightly controlled. The Brazilian case provides a powerful counterexample to the general proposition of North and Weingast that institutional changes that credibly commit the government to honor its obligations necessarily promote the development of private finance. The very institutions that enhanced the credibility of sovereign debt permitted the systematic repression of private financial development. In terms of its consequences for domestic capital markets, the liberal Constitution of 1824 represented an “inglorious” revolution. * The project from which this paper is drawn was supported by U.S. National Endowment for the Humanities Summer Stipend #FT-42324-97; U.S. Department of Education Fulbright-Hays Faculty Research Abroad Grant #P019A970003; and a National Fellowship at the Hoover Institution. Flavio Souza Santos, Cala Dietrich, and Nat Ishino provided assistance with research, as did collections staffs at the Rothschild Archive in London and the Arquivo Nacional in Brazil. Joseph Ryan shared his preliminary findings on private borrowing in Rio de Janeiro. Discussions with Daniel Waldenstrom helped me implement the procedures for detecting structural breaks. Previous versions benefited from conversations with Luis Catao, Gustavo Franco, Jean-Laurent Rosenthal, and from the comments of seminar participants at the Von Gremp Workshop in Economic History at UCLA, the Lowe Institute of Political Economy at Claremont-McKenna College, and the Kellogg Institute at Notre Dame University. All errors are mine. ** Department of History, UCLA, wrs@ucla.edu." @default.
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• W45843394 title "Inglorious revolution: sovereign debt, tropical credibility, and financial underdevelopment in imperial Brazil" @default.
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