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• W49898081 abstract "This paper develops a cross-country statistical model of debt rescheduling, and the secondary market valuation of LDC debt, which links these variables to key structural characteristics of developing countries, such as the trade regime, the degree of income inequality, and the share of agriculture in GNP. Our most striking finding is that higher income inequality is a significant predictor of a higher probability of debt rescheduling in a cross-section of middle-income countries. We attribute this correlation to various difliculties of political management in economies with extreme inequality. We also find that outward-orientation of the trade regime is a significant predictor of a reduced probability of debt rescheduling. The debt crisis can be studied as a problem in epidemiology. A powerful virus, high world interest rates, hit the population of capital-importing developing countries in the early 1980s. Some countries succumbed to the virus, having to reschedule their debts on an emergency basis, while others did not. And of those countries that arrived for emergency treatment, some recovered sufftciently to enter a period of quiet convalescence, while others are still suffering from febrile seizures in the IMF’s intensive care unit. The epidemiologist studies the progression of a disease in order to understand the disease better, and to recommend improved forms of treatment. For the same reason, it is important to understand why some countries fell prey to the debt crisis while others did not, and why some countries have recovered from the crisis while other countries remain deeply enmeshed in it. The goal of our paper is to find answers to these questions, and then to draw inferences about the fundamental nature of the debt crisis itself. Was the crisis mainly the result of external shocks, internal policy mistakes, the organization of political power within the debtor countries, or *We are grateful to the participants in the First InterAmerican Seminar on Economics, and in particular to Albert Fishlow and our discussants Marcel0 Selowsky and Ernest0 Zedillo. Andrew Berg acknowledges linancial support from an NSF Graduate Fellowship. The research supported here is part of the NBER’s research program in International Studies. Any opinions expressed are those of the authors and not those of the National Burea of Economic Research." @default.
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• W49898081 date "1988-01-01" @default.
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• W49898081 title "Structural Explanations of Country Performance" @default.
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