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- W535729 abstract "The occurrence of state repression is a puzzle. If repression is to succeed, dissidents should not rebel. If it is to fail, the state should concede in order to save the costs of unsuccessful repression. I propose an explanation for the “repression puzzle” that hinges on information asymmetries between the state and dissidents about the costs of repression to the state, and hence the likelihood of its application by the state. I then present a formal model that combines the insights of grievance-based and political process theories to investigate the consequences of this information asymmetry for the dissidents’ contentious actions and for the relationship between the magnitude of grievances (formulated here as the extent of inequality) and the likelihood of repression. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this relationship is non-monotone. That is, as the magnitude of grievances increases, the likelihood of repression might decrease. I investigate the relationship between inequality and the likelihood of repression in all country-years from 1981 to 1999. To mitigate specification problem, I estimate the probability of repression using a generalized additive model with thinplate splines (GAM-TPS). This technique allows for flexible relationship between inequality, the proxy for the costs of repression and revolutions (income per capita), and the likelihood of repression. The empirical evidence support my prediction that the relationship between the magnitude of grievances and the likelihood of repression is non-monotone." @default.
- W535729 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W535729 creator A5037015366 @default.
- W535729 date "2010-01-01" @default.
- W535729 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W535729 title "The Repression Puzzle: Mobilization, Repression, and Inequality 1" @default.
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