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• W55878840 abstract "Since 1946, the Alaska Railroad has systematically recorded natural avalanche activity to the train track level. Parameters recorded include date, location, and apparent volume computed by length and width on the train track. This relatively long term record shows a significant relationship between frequency and magnitude on individual avalanche paths and the Chugach Range as a whole. For each avalanche path, the distance between Beta and Alpha angles are calculated and the train track position expressed as a percentage of Beta in order to normalize the runout distance expression. The % Beta term standardizes avalanche runouts so that a significant data set can compare frequency and magnitude for a large number of avalanche paths in a single area. A regression analysis defines the overall frequency relationship for all avalanche paths at any given location relative to the measured Beta angle. This information can be used in the design of fixed facilities in runout zones to determine the likely frequency of maj or avalanche events at any location. A more refined analysis of risk levels in these locations is thus possible. INTRODUCTION Avalanche workers throughout the world are intrigued by large avalanches associated with periodic avalanche cycles. A strategy in engineering avalanche defenses is to' use a 10 year or 100 year avalanche event return period and model the forces associated with these unusually large avalanches as well as maximum runout distance (Bovis and Mears, 1976; Lied and Bakkehoi, 1980; Bakkehoi, et. aI., 1983; McClung and Lied, 1984; Lied and Toppe, 1988; Mears et.al., 1988; Mears, 1992). Field workers are constantly trying to recognize circumstances that produce such large events and cycles. Since 1991, the Chugach Mountains on the southern coast of Alaska have been the location of the annual World Extreme Ski Championships. Many recent ski media articles have characterized the Chugach snowpack as stable. However, the Chugach Range is subject to both extreme maritime and continental climatic influences which combine to produce one of the most complex snowpacks in North America. At different times throughout the winter, each climates regime dominates. The result is a complex, stratified snowpack that produces avalanche cycles which are not easily characterized. To characterize the snowpack as stable is not founded. As in every mountain range, there are extended periods ofrelative stability, followed by extreme instability. 224 It is helpful for both practitioners and scientists to look at historical influences to try and extract the pertinent information to solve their particular problems. Data on avalanche occurrences are of particular interest in establishing the periodicity and magnitude of avalanche events. In an area as remote and unpopulated as the Chugach Range, relevant data is mostly anecdotal. The two exceptions to this are the systematic avalanche occurrence records available from the Alyeska Ski Resort and the Alaska Railroad. Events have been so recorded at Alyeska Resort since 1976, and on the Railroad since 1946. This paper uses this data set to describe the relationship between the frequency and magnitude of avalanches in the Chugach Range. METHODS The Alyeska data base was used to describe events uphill of Point P (the 10 degree point) with a periodicity of less than 10 years. In 1985, the resort began recording runout distance on avalanche paths by percentage with 100% being maximum runout distance according to existing vegetative parameters. We have analyzed this data using moving averages to derive the average number of events at given locations in the avalanche'track and runout zone. Since 1946, the Alaska Railroad has systematically recorded all avalanche occurrences that reached the railroad track. We have sorted the data according to various parameters. The analysis conducted on this data base is more relevant to long term, large magnitude events. The Railroad data parameters analyzed include: • Frequency by avalanche path A distribution of events sorted by milepost or location • Apparent Volume of selected paths Apparent volume of all avalanche paths was sorted by size, then characteristic volume curves were selected for regression analysis. • Analysis of largest 5 events on each path The largest 5 events for each path were selected, then the volume of the largest event in each path was divided by the volume of the smallest of the 5 event sample to produce a ratio. The average ratio was derived in order to isolate those paths that produced unusually large events. • Analysis of largest 2 events The same analysis as in # 3 except with only the top two events. • Volume curves of 5 largest events on select paths A similar analysis to #2 but with only the largest 5 events included. • Chronological distribution of 5 largest events Avalanche Dynamics and Defence Figure 2Railroad Total # Events Figure 1-Alyeska Frequency by % -2 per. Mov. Avg. (Series1) -Series1 rfl. '* eft. 000 ' 500 T'~__~~~~~~~~~~~--'" @default.
• W55878840 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W55878840 date "1996-01-01" @default.
• W55878840 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W55878840 title "Frequency/Magnitude Relationship of Avalanches in the Chugach Range, Alaska" @default.
• W55878840 cites W1569568770 @default.
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