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- W568595241 abstract "The term scenario appears to be becoming the new buzz-word in transport analysis and indeed economic analysis in general. There is a danger, however, that it may turn into a vague catch-all term unless it is defined more precisely and related directly to a given form of practice. This type of practice is often associated with a second word, forecast, which is the theme proposed for the ECMT Symposium. However, the concept of what constitutes a forecast is becoming increasingly nebulous in a world characterized by growing uncertainty and changing trends, in short, in a world on the brink of the Millennium in which deterministic models are proving to be powerless on shedding light on the future. The first part of this paper discusses the practical aspects of scenario-building and forecasting in the transport sector over the past 20 years, but it is not intended as a comprehensive review of the area; the examples will largely be taken from the work of the ECMT Group on Trends in International Traffic and infrastructure investment (TTI Group). The second part of the paper will attempt to construct scenarios for Europe in the horizon year 2020 on the basis of some of the findings of the 4th EU Framework Program for Research and Development." @default.
- W568595241 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W568595241 creator A5017860090 @default.
- W568595241 date "2000-01-01" @default.
- W568595241 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W568595241 title "CONSTRUCTING A REFERENCE SCENARIO FOR EUROPE" @default.
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