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• W576302308 abstract "New Mexico has many unique agricultural characteristics that are important to consider when assessing economic impacts of climate change legislation, such as the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (ACES, H.R. 2454, also known as the Waxman-Markey Bill). Based on existing data and studies, this assessment considers many of these characteristics in developing preliminary findings on the economic effects of proposed legislation on the state’s agricultural economy. Agriculture is varied and diverse in this region, from large-scale orchards of tree nuts to vegetables, cotton, and a variety of row and field crops, and from widespread cattle grazing and ranching to large-scale dairy production. The proposed climate change legislation almost surely entails a relative rise in energy and fertilizer costs. Energy costs are expected to rise by as little as 4% or as much as 13% by 2020, and fertilizer costs by a smaller amount, perhaps ranging between 0.3% and 2% by 2020. Projected increases in fertilizer costs are much less because of the availability of rebates for energyintensive, trade-exposed (EITE) industries and projected falling natural gas prices. Though the projected increases are modest, such increases will be important for agriculturalists, who must operate on relatively thin profit margins. Furthermore, as farmers throughout the nation adjust to these cost increases, increased demand for bioenergy fuels; increased value of carbon-sequestration; and changes in crop management, land use, and market strategies will likely result in higher commodity prices received by farmers, in many cases largely offsetting projected cost increases. Even in cases where these cost increases are not offset—or if cost increases are perceived by many to be much more certain than revenue increases—the expected rise appears to be well within the range of recent energy-price variability. While new production and revenue opportunities and higher commodity prices will generally benefit farmers, resulting feed prices will adversely affect livestock and dairy producers. In the western states, cattle and dairies are important segments of the agricultural economy. Higher feed and energy costs will pose several threats and challenges. Our preliminary findings suggest that energy, fertilizer, and feed cost increases expected under the proposed legislation could initially shrink the region’s agricultural economy until these losses are offset by rising revenues—primarily from higher commodity prices. On balance, based on expected patterns of cost and price changes, we estimate that, compared to baseline levels, state-level net farm income in 2020 rises by about 4.1% for New Mexico. Crop producers will likely experience improved revenues from high crop prices, and if they are able to take advantage of new biofuel crop markets and opportunities to sequester carbon and gain offset revenue they may be able to more than offset their cost increases. Traditional ranching, the dominant practice throughout this region, has few bright prospects, although dairies and other concentrated feeding operations may be able to generate additional income through methane-saving devices, such as digesters, that will provide revenue not only through carbon-offset markets but also through electricity sales. INTRODUCTION Growing concern about the possible effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere on global climate has resulted in federal legislation to limit emissions and develop mechanisms and incentives to encourage long-term storage (e.g., sequestration) of carbon. In 2009, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (ACES, H.R. 2454, also known as the Waxman-Markey Bill). This legislation initiates a so-called “Cap and Trade” (CT Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University; Professor and Extension Specialist, Department of Agriculture and Resource Economics, University of Arizona; and Graduate Research Assistant, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University." @default.
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• W576302308 date "2011-01-01" @default.
• W576302308 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W576302308 title "Estimated Impacts of Climate Change Legislation on New Mexico Agriculture" @default.
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