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• W576876544 abstract "The aim of this work was to clear up general safety impacts of the lowered speed limits in wintertime by analysing the traffic accident-data of the study made by the Technical Research Centre of Finland between 1987-1989 (Peltola 1991). The analysis of the accident data has been done in two different ways in this report. The first method was based on the experimental design used in the research, and it gave an estimate for the mean effect of lowering the speed limit from 100 km/h to 80 km/h. The statistical significance of this estimate could be tested without any assumptions concerning the distribution of the number of accidents. The second analysis was a Poisson regression based on the assumption that the number of accidents on each test road follows Poisson distribution. The lowering of the speed limit was one of the explained variables. The other explained variables were weather conditions and road characteristics. The analysis was based on a statistical model of the experimental design used in the research. The model made it possible to evaluate mathematically the estimate of the effect of lowering the speed limit. It could be seen that it was possible to calculate an unbiased estimate for the effect using the data of the survey in question. Instead, there was a problem connected with testing the statistical significance of the effect: The experimental data was analysed under the assumption that the accidents on different roads were independent random variables. The independence hypothesis was not perfectly valid because of the similarities in variations of weather conditions on roads situated near each other. The effect that the correlation of the accident numbers between different roads had on the statistical testing was studied using the Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation indicated that the correlation does not lead to incorrect statistical inference. The first estimation method gave a result that lowering the speed limit reduced the mean number of all accidents by 13.8%. The corresponding reduction given by the regression analysis was 13.9%. This effect was statistically significant at the risk level 0.05. The reduction in the mean number of the injuries was 11.3%, but this effect was not statistically significant. The effect that lowering the speed limit had on the number of persons dead in the accidents was not statistically significant as well. The reduction in the number of accidents excluding the injuries was 14.5%, and this effect was statistically significant at the risk level 0.05." @default.
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• W576876544 date "1999-01-01" @default.
• W576876544 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W576876544 title "THE ANALYSING OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENT-DATA FROM THE LOWERED SPEED LIMITS IN WINTERTIME BETWEEN 1987-1989" @default.
• W576876544 hasPublicationYear "1999" @default.
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