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- W587489162 abstract "We …nd that investors'expectations of U.S. nominal yields, at dierent maturities and forecast horizons, exhibit signi…cant time-variation during the Great Moderation. Nominal zero-coupon bond yields for the U.S. are used to …t the yield curve using a latent factor model. In the benchmark model, the VAR process used to characterize the conditional forecasts of yields has constant coe¢ cients. The alternative class of models assume that investors use adaptive learning, in the form of a constant gain algorithm and dierent en- dogenous gain algorithms, which we propose here. Our results indicate that incorporating time-varying coe¢ cients in the conditional forecasts of yields lead to large improvements in forecasting performance, at dierent maturities and horizons. These improvements are even more substantial during the Great Recession. We conclude that our results provide strong empirical motivation to use the class of adaptive learning models considered here, for modeling potential investor expectation formation in periods of low and high volatility, and the endogenous learning model leads to signi…cant improvements over the benchmark in periods of high volatility. A policy experiment, which simulates a surprise shock to the level of the yield curve, illustrates that the conditional forecasts of yields implied by the learning models do signi…cantly better at capturing the response observed in the realized yield curve, relative to the constant-coe¢ cients model. Furthermore, the endogenous learning algorithm does well at matching the time-series patterns observed in expected excess returns implied by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. JEL classi…cations: E43, E47, D83, C5" @default.
- W587489162 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W587489162 date "2018-09-01" @default.
- W587489162 modified "2023-09-25" @default.
- W587489162 title "What does the yield curve imply about investor expectations?" @default.
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- W587489162 doi "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.06.003" @default.
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