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• W602601850 abstract "The purpose of the study is to provide technical support to a debate on transport scenarios with a 20- and 40- year horizon, inter alia, by collecting and analysing information on transport long-term scenario forecasting, by developing long-term transport scenarios including modelling work and case studies, and by suggesting long-term objectives for the European transport policies. A comprehensive discussion of the drivers related to transport has been carried out in the study, resulting in a subdivision of the drivers in question into: external drivers, that is drivers external to the transport sector, where five main categories of drivers were identified (population, economic development, energy, technology development and social change); internal drivers, that is drivers internal to the transport sector e.g. infrastructure, vehicles and fuel development and transport impact on environment and society; and finally policy drivers, that is broad policy responses which affect the evolution of the transport system, and in particular the governance of the transport sector. A number of different exploratory scenarios for 2050 have been formulated based on the identified drivers. The scenarios are formulated as different paths towards a postcarbon society. These scenarios have been named: “Move Alone” (Individualistic transport, technology, supply management and market spontaneous self-organisation); “Move Together” (pricing and modal shift, land planning, emphasis on cohesion); “Move Less” (behavioural policies and regulation, lifestyle changes, priority to local production); and “Stop Moving” (society initially puts a strong emphasis upon technology, but when breakthroughs do not take place it falls back on regulation and banning activities). Scenarios have also been developed for 2030. These are fitted to the use of EC’s transport model TRANS-TOOLS in the sense that the scenarios are established based on the main inputs for the TRANS-TOOLS model. Such inputs include: socio-economic input (population, GDP development, work places); transport policy input (change in vehicle operating costs, fares and transport costs for different transport modes); and network input (links and nodes and data related to these). Three scenarios have been set up: “Baseline”, “High Growth” and “Low Growth”. An important aspect of the study has been to analyse different transport policy options to obtain reductions of the transport sector’s CO2 emissions by arbitrarily set targets of 10 % in 2020 and 50 % in 2050, compared to 2005." @default.
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• W602601850 date "2009-03-23" @default.
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• W602601850 title "Report on Transport Scenarios with a 20 and 40 year Horizon, Final Report" @default.
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