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- W607674676 abstract "The checkered history of predicting the future — e.g., “Man will never fly” — has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty." @default.
- W607674676 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W607674676 date "2003-01-01" @default.
- W607674676 modified "2023-10-13" @default.
- W607674676 title "Shaping the Next One Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis" @default.
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- W607674676 doi "https://doi.org/10.7249/mr1626" @default.
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