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- W614964984 abstract "This paper reports on work undertaken for the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council with the objective of developing a set of national and regional travel demand models for car, bus and rail use in Great Britain using a variety of techniques. This paper focuses on an exploratory disaggregate analysis of the commuter market. Other work, not reported in detail here, involved disaggregate analyses of the business and leisure markets and aggregate analyses of the car, bus and rail markets. The work reported in this paper is based on the National Travel Survey, a now annual travel diary of over 3,000 households per annum. Three preliminary journey to work models are described: a mode choice model based on multinomial logit; a car availability model based on a variant of hierarchical logit that permits estimation of saturation levels; and a trip length model based on regression. These models were largely driven by socio-economic variables such as age, sex, income, household structure and residential density rather than more conventional variables such as travel times and costs. They also appear to explain more variation than traditional approaches to mode choice. The model system forecasts strong growth in car commuter traffic (up 35% between 1997 and 2010), although we argue that this should be seen as indicative of latent rather than actual demand. A number of improvements to the approach adopted are highlighted. (A)" @default.
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- W614964984 date "2001-08-01" @default.
- W614964984 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W614964984 title "DEVELOPING NATIONAL MULTI-MODAL TRAVEL MODELS: A CASE STUDY OF THE JOURNEY TO WORK" @default.
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