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• W619686507 abstract "Since Robert Pickrell’s study on costs and demands of urban rail projects in the US in the 80’s and 90’s the profession suddenly became aware of the large errors in the travel demand forecasts and the costs of transport facilities. Later, Bent Flyjberg argued that there has been a willful misrepresentation of both demand and cost of (large) transport investments and this mislead the public. Was there collusion between planners, economists, managers and decision-makers? While the overestimation of demand and underestimation of costs is an observed fact, it begs the question how it was possible that the profession—planners, designers, economists, and managers—could help push through a seemingly badly informed decision. To be sure, many economists and engineers challenged the forecasts and the economic evaluation of rail projects, especially, and in some cases also of road projects. Although, the latter were often rejected on other grounds: the environment, cultural values, and the ‘nimby’. The present paper shows that accuracy of travel forecasts was known but not heard before the Pickrell study. The first, often nominally accepted but rarely investigated, reason was the conditionality of travel forecasts. The paper gives examples of inaccuracies and difficulties in the land use and socio-economic forecasts and points out how fundamentally they are related to concepts and values that shape people’s behavior. The second set of reasons concerns the transport network. There are two aspects. One is the difficulty to ‘predict’ when and where transport network investments will be made. The second is the coding of the transport network. Examples are shown how network coding, especially the transit network, and the paths affect travel forecasts. These factors combined, and the wide range of values that could believably be used for the value of time, cost of accidents, operating costs, and the use of different prices in travel forecasts and benefit-cost analyses have led to easy manipulability to justify a project. All this was well-known in the mid seventies. The issue was that the planners and economists had, and continue to have, a concept about planning in which forecasts have a central role. If forecasts or models do not give results that are consistent with our concepts, means are found to eliminate outliers, recode the networks, or change land use projections that support plans that are consistent with the concepts we hold today. Arguments and facts were, and seemingly are, of little value and use. The paper puts forward a hypothesis that decision-makers do not place much value on travel forecasts or benefit-costs analyses, and a view that the main objective of travel models is not forecasting." @default.
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• W619686507 date "2007-01-01" @default.
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• W619686507 title "On the Invisible History of Travel Forecasting" @default.
• W619686507 hasPublicationYear "2007" @default.
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