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- W627501 abstract "A method for risk analysis of complex technologies has been demonstrated, carrying the analysis from source term to increased cancer. The results provide a basis for comparing effects from various pathways and considering absolute magnitude of the risk from a synfuels plant. Other synfuels plants may not have the same emission rates, and these conclusions refer only to the specific plant analyzed. Comparison with others can be made on the basis of relative emissions rates. Effects from air emissions seem greater in Table V since air emissions are 50-fold greater than water emissions; on a unit-emission basis, upper-bound cancer estimates of Table V associated with water emissions are about 12 times greater than those associated with air emissions. It is not known whether the plant will produce any increase in cancer. This method of analysis produces a nonzero upper bound in any case in which the RAC includes a known or suspected carcinogen. We believe the upper bounds of the ranges are reasonably estimated. Although not exactly comparable, the highest upper-bound estimate is from local direct inhalation - 0.6% increase in cancer rate. This may be sufficiently high to warrant further consideration. The range of uncertainty is large, including zero.more » Although some aspects of uncertainty can be reduced by using more sophisticated models and better data, the uncertainty largely reflects the current state of knowledge and can be improved significantly only through better understanding of the mechanisms of chemical carcinogenesis. Risk analysis does not eliminate the problem of how to make decisions concerning new industries that emit pollutants which may cause cancer. It cannot produce better estimates than the data on which it is based. It simply provides a means of bringing existing knowledge to bear on problems in a systematic and useful way. 10 references, 5 figures, 7 tables.« less" @default.
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- W627501 date "1982-01-01" @default.
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- W627501 title "Extrapolation to health risk: use of comparative approaches. Chapter 14" @default.
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