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- W62867725 abstract "Executive SummaryNowhere is the efficacy of economic inducements and sanctions more hotly contested than on the Korean peninsula. Assessments are sharply divided. Critics of engagement argue that positive inducements are fraught with moral hazard and the risk of blackmail, encouraging the very behavior they are designed to forestall. Proponents regard it as a strategy that has never consistently been put to the test.This study makes three main points. The has to do with domestic politics in North Korea, including both its capacity to absorb pressure and its interest in engagement. The extraordinary repressiveness of the regime clearly calls into question the utility of broad commercial sanctions against North Korea, assuming they could even be coordinated. There is some evidence that financial sanctions had an economic effect in both 2006 and again after 2009; by early 2011, the country was experiencing a steadily worsening food crisis and had pressed foreign capitals, the World Food Program, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) for assistance. Nonetheless, sanctions did not deter the regime from testing missiles and two nuclear devices, sinking the Cheonan, or shelling Yeonpyeong Island.Evidence of North Korean intent to engage is elusive, but consistent with an interpretation that North Korean motivations varied over time. When the Bush administration came to office, North Korea was in a relatively reformist phase; this opening was almost completely missed by the Bush administration, which was preoccupied with intelligence on the country's highly enriched uranium (HEU) program. Over time, however, the mixed results of the reforms and the worsening external environment led to clear shifts in economic policy that are suggestive of deeper political changes in the regime. Particularly after 2005, and culminating with the disastrous currency reform of 2009, the regime's military first politics had taken a much harder form.From August 2008, Kim Jong-il's likely stroke and the onset of the succession process frustrated prospects for engagement. These domestic political events coincided with a further hardening of the regime around core bases of support, a preoccupation with showing resolve, and a declining willingness to make tradeoffs. In combination, these domestic political shifts help explain the particularly unwelcoming stance North Korea took toward the incoming Obama administration, a stance that deeply colored Washington's reaction to the missile and nuclear tests of 2009.A second finding is that the efforts of the Bush administration to pressure North Korea were consistently undermined by severe coordination problems. South Korea pursued a strategy of relatively unconditional engagement through 2007, and even Japan sought normalization until its policy was hijacked by domestic sensitivities over the earlier abductions of Japanese by North Koreans. But China's role was clearly pivotal. China has been consistent in its rhetorical commitment to denuclearization. Beijing has played a key role in brokering the talks, offered crucial inducements to keep the talks going, and even signaled its displeasure through support of multilateral statements and sanctions, particularly in 2009. Nevertheless, it has been consistently unwilling to use its vast economic influence to force a reckoning. To the contrary, North Korea's foreign economic relations have become more rather than less dependent on China, compounding the diplomatic difficulties of bringing pressure to bear on the country.This conclusion gains force through a consideration of the North Korean response to pressure and sanctions. There is little evidence that ratcheting up pressure worked; to the contrary, it generated escalatory responses and poisoned negotiations. To the extent that it did work, it did so through a diplomatic process that spelled out for North Korea the benefits of complying with its international obligations, as well as the costs of not doing so. …" @default.
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- W62867725 date "2011-05-17" @default.
- W62867725 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W62867725 title "Engaging North Korea: The Role of Economic Statecraft" @default.
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