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- W629176247 abstract "The temperature and precipitation changes for 2009-2098 were examined under the SRES A1B scenario. Twenty-three models were compared to observations from 1970-1999 of three variables: precipitation, temperature and mean sea level pressure. Demerit points were assigned to models using three systems: comparisons of seasonality, pattern correlations and magnitudes, and subzero pattern correlations. This resulted in nine total categories. If models were extreme in any three of the categories, they were not used in the projections. Sixteen models were selected to use in projections of future climate. These models were combined to achieve a multi-model ensemble. The multi-model trends for precipitation and temperature were analyzed along with the individual models with highest and lowest trends. Trends were analyzed for the whole Bolivian region, the Altiplano zone, and Amazon Basin zone. A trend of 0.408±0.005 K/decade was found for the multi-model average, which was significant above natural variability. The projected trends were much greater than the observed temperature trends from 1910-1999, which was 0.046±0.018 K/decade. In addition temperature trends were examined for the 30-year intervals of 2009-2028, 2029-2068, and 2069-2098. The annual precipitation trends were not significant above natural variability; however, there was a significant increase in summer precipitation over Bolivia and the Amazon Basin." @default.
- W629176247 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W629176247 creator A5059249942 @default.
- W629176247 date "2010-01-01" @default.
- W629176247 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W629176247 title "The use of multi-model ensembles of IPCC 4th Assessment Report climate simulations for projections of Bolivian precipitation and temperature" @default.
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