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• W631430705 abstract "IntroductionIf learners are unable to model risk, dealing with risk is hindered - learners may view the loss of resources as wholly unpredictable. They will hardly have any criteria for assessing expectations and may develop excessive fear becoming risk averse - or - conversely - become risk prone and engage carelessly in high-risk endeavors.Human life is characterized by risk: most decisions and actions have a risky side to them. The difference between the ways we deal with risks today and the way our ancestors dealt with them is that we now have theoretical support to analyze risks. Simply defining risk as the possibility of losing a (valuable) resource with a certain probability provides a framework that facilitates assessing risk. A typical example is a gamble: someone offers us to throw a coin and if heads turns up we gain, say 10 dollars. Yet if tails turns up we have to pay 5 dollars. What is the risk here? Should we accept the gamble? Observe that we lose 5 dollars with a probability of 0.5 (our risk) and gain 10 dollars also with a probability of 0.5 (our benefit). Thus it should be considered worthwhile to accept the gamble. We say that a situation (an experiment) is risky when at least one of the events with strictly positive probability produces a loss of resources (e.g. time, health, energy, money). Most decisions we make daily have risky sides, which we should be able to evaluate (Gigerenzer, 2014; Kurz-Milcke, Gigerenzer & Martignon, 2008; Martignon & Krauss, 2009). Risk analysis is today a highly developed sub-discipline of decision analysis and requires sophisticated mathematical treatment. Yet the basic elements for getting along in everyday life are simple and can be grasped even by young children.Representations that foster risk assessmentIn this section we illustrate two basic tools for risk assessment: distinguishing between absolute and relative risk and understanding conditional probabilities. We often hear that the use of a medicine may reduce the risk of a certain disease by, say, 50%. How should w?e interpret this infonnation? Actually, there is something missing in this piece of infonnation. In fact it communicates a relative risk without specifying the absolute risk.Consider the following true story: In the mid-1990s, the British press reported the results of a study that women who took this contraceptive pill increased their risk of thromboembolism by 100%. Thromboembolism means blockage of a blood vessel by a clot and can lead to fatal strokes. Hearing the bad news, thousands of British women panicked and stopped taking the pill, which led to a wave of unwanted pregnancies. But what did the study in fact show? Out of every 7.000 women who did not take the pill, one had thromboembolism, and out of every 7.000 who took it, this number increased from one to two. An absolute risk is communicated with mention of the reference grade, whereas a relative risk only considers the gain or loss with respect to a specific element of this grade. Understanding the difference between absolute and relative risks should be part of the school curriculum.Good representations for an elementary introduction of relative and absolute risk reduction in Primary SchoolThe dynamical webpage www.eeps.com/riskicon presents convenient representation tools for instructing school students on the difference between absolute and relative risk. Figure 1 is extracted from that webpage. The simulation lets you explore risk reduction. A number of people have had bike accidents. Half of them were wearing helmets. The relative risk reduction when wearing a helmet is of 50%. Yet the absolute risk reduction is of 2 out of 10 to 1 out of 10. The sliders at the right hand side of the iconic illustration can be used to vary the size of the sample, the probability of injury when riding without a helmet and the risk reduction provided by the use of a helmet.Another fundamental tool for reckoning with risks is conditional probability. …" @default.
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• W631430705 date "2015-06-01" @default.
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• W631430705 title "Good Models and Good Representations are a Support for Learners' Risk Assessment" @default.
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