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- W635223939 abstract "It is widely assumed that climate change is likely to affect the geographic distribution and intensity of the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. These diseases are expected to occur, compared with the past and presence, at higher latitudes and altitudes. A slight rise in ambient temperature and precipitation is expected to extend the duration of the season in which mosquito vectors are transmitting the malaria pathogens. The parasites as well usually benefit from increased temperatures, as both their reproduction and development would accelerate. These inter-relationships and respective public discussions gave reason to examine potential effects on the seasonal transmission gate due to the predicted climate changes in Lower Saxony (North-Western Germany). The federal state Lower Saxony was a former endemic malaria region with highest incidences of Anopheles atroparvus and tertian malaria along the coastal zones until malaria had finally been eradicated in the early 1950s. However up to now, the malaria vector Anopheles is still present. Accordingly, a pilot study should settle whether a new autochthonous transmission could take place if the malaria pathogen is introduced again in Lower Saxony. Thus, the spatial and temporal structure of temperature-driven malaria transmissions was investigated using the basic reproduction rate (R 0) to model the risk for an outbreak of tertian malaria due to measured (1947–1960, 1961–1990, 1985–2004) and predicted (2020, 2060, 2100, each best case and worst case scenario) air temperatures and to geostatistically map the respective risk areas. The risk maps revealed that the gate of potential tertian malaria transmissions in terms of R 0 could be expected to increase from two months in the past to six months in the future in Lower Saxony. Past and recent findings of A. atroparvus coincide with those regions where the potential malaria transmission gate accounts for four months in 2060 (best case scenario) and for six months in 2100 (worst case scenario) and, in addition, where tertian malaria occurred up to the 1950s. The estimated maps on malaria risk were intersected with a map on ecological land units, enabeling an ecological regionalisation." @default.
- W635223939 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W635223939 date "2013-12-15" @default.
- W635223939 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
- W635223939 title "Case Study 1: Modelling Potential Transmission Gates of Malaria Tertiana in Lower Saxony" @default.
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- W635223939 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-03823-0_2" @default.
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