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- W638499222 abstract "A number of different approaches to car demand modelling can be found in more or less separate literatures. There is work--often sponsored by the National Road Administration or other authorities responsible for road investment planning--with an ultimate view to forecasting the long-term development of car traffic. These models usually consist of two separate parts--one for estimating the future level of car ownership, and another for estimating the average mileage per car. For the purpose of fiscal and/or monetary stabilization policy, macroeconomic models for short-term forecasting are developed. An important and notoriously unpredictable item of total demand is private investment by firms as well as by households in consumer durables. Among the latter, cars is a major item. Fluctuations in total car purchases from one year to another of plus or minus 30% are not unusual, and quite different models (than the models for forecasting the long-term development of car ownership) are used for predicting expenditure on cars 1-3 years hence. As a natural extension of modal split modelling efforts, discrete choice models estimated on disaggregate cross-section data have been applied also for explaining car ownership. By this approach deeper knowledge of the socio-economic factors of importance for household car ownership has been obtained. The influence of local conditions like public transport supply and parking facilities on car ownership also become more tractable by the disaggregate approach. On the other hand, some important factors for the long-term development of car demand like the price-elasticity and the diffusion process seem difficult to estimate by cross-section analysis only." @default.
- W638499222 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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- W638499222 date "1983-01-01" @default.
- W638499222 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W638499222 title "SOME APPROACHES TO CAR DEMAND MODELLING" @default.
- W638499222 hasPublicationYear "1983" @default.
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