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• W6436047 abstract "How economic agents form their expectations of future economic events has been animportance issue in macroeconomics for many years. Indeed, business firm'sexpectations has played a central role in the business cycle theories of both Pigou(1927) and Keynes (1936). Acknowledging that the behavioral assumption of therational expectation is important to modem economic theory and econometricmodeling, this study is undertaken for the purpose of investigating whether theMalaysian Business Expectation Survey For Limited Companies, provides the basisfor prediction which, satisfy the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) andproperty in the sense of Muth (1961).The business survey-based expectations, drawn from Business Expectations Surveyof Limited Companies (BESLC), conducted biannually by the Malaysia' sDepartment of Statistic, offer a unique opportunity to accumulate empirical evidenceon expectation formation and decision-making at micro level. Four criteria of'rationality' is examined in the study namely, unbiasedness, serial correlation offorecasts error, weak-form efficiency and orthogonality. Essentially, this study utilizes business survey data in a manner that is different fromprior study by testing the rationality of firm's expectations at different level ofaggregation. Accordingly, the sectoral subdivisions are as follows: the aggregatedrespondents of the BESLC survey data are group into three divisions of significantsectoral in Malaysia: that is, primary sector, industrials sector and service sector. Atan even higher disaggregated level, the manufacturing sub-sector under theindustrial sector, which can be further segmented into consumer goods industry,capital goods industry, as well as light and heavy intermediate goods industry.Evidently, the significance of the use of disaggregated data is noted in this study.Apparently, REH are rejected comprehensively when directs test were performed onthe sectoral segmentation level. At a higher disaggregated level, as the direct testsare applied to the data from most of the constituent industries of manufacturingsectors, these test provide at least some amount of direct evidence in favor of thehypothesis, which is often simply assume to be valid, that expectations are rationalas defined by Muth (1961). Hence, this implies that the prior investigations of therationality of survey expectational data have overlooked relevant data bydisregarding the potential of aggregation bias encompassed by the aggregated surveydata. Although the presence of the aggregation bias has not been formally tested, theresults of this study here suggest that this potential bias may be of importance." @default.
• W6436047 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W6436047 creator A5077736818 @default.
• W6436047 date "2002-01-01" @default.
• W6436047 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W6436047 title "Rational Expectations and Survey Data" @default.
• W6436047 hasPublicationYear "2002" @default.
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