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• W657411844 abstract "In industrialized countries the historical high growth in passenger mobility – specifically car travel - has leveled off in recent years and there are signs of saturation. However, current evidence suggests that this saturation occurs on very different levels in different countries; i.e. high-income countries show different levels of motorization (cars/capita) and car travel demand (VKT/capita), even if levels of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita are broadly similar. This indicates that although economic development explains much of mobility development, there are likely to be many other influential factors ranging from transport, land use and industrial policies. This paper investigates a) why the evolutionary paths of mobility development in high-income countries have been so different in the past and b) what this means for the future of mobility in places that today are still characterized by substantial growth of mobility. The paper introduces an innovative expert based methodology that compares historic developments in framework conditions for mobility in four Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) study countries (Australia, Germany, Japan, United States) with possible future developments in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries. As regards the implications of framework conditions for mobility the authors focus on car travel because of data availability, because of the importance of car travel as part of general mobility and because the substantial differences in car travel per capita in the OECD study countries tell much about the differences in mobility behavior in general. The authors study aims to answer the question: Which levels of automobility are the BRIC countries headed towards? To study this the authors engaged in a dialogue with transportation experts from all eight study countries. Nine factors that shaped the speed of mobility development and projected saturation levels for the OECD countries were presented to this group of experts. The group developed projections for the nine factors for the BRIC countries relative to the historic developments in the OECD study countries. Based on these projections the authors developed likely future paths for the BRIC countries which eventually allow for estimates as regards the levels of car travel that the BRIC countries are heading towards in the long term. Based on the authors analysis, Brazil turns out to be the most car-oriented country among the BRICs with a potential long-term level of automobility between Germany and Australia. Russia comes in second, also with a likely long-term level of automobility above that of Germany. China and India, on the contrary, are heading towards lower levels of automobility below Germany but higher than Japan." @default.
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• W657411844 date "2013-01-01" @default.
• W657411844 modified "2023-09-24" @default.
• W657411844 title "Paths to the Future: Prototypical Historical Patterns of Mobility Evolution in OECD Countries and Their Implications for the Future of the BRIC Countries" @default.
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