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• W66169439 abstract "Urban development is a significant global phenomenon and is one of the main drivers of global environmental change. The objectives of this thesis are: 1) to develop a simulation model of urban development using cellular automaton and incorporating fuzzy set theory and spatial information technologies; and 2) to apply this model to assist in understanding the patterns and controls of urban development both spatially and temporally using Metropolitan Sydney as a case study.The application of cellular automaton in modelling urban development is not new. However, with the understanding of urban development as a fuzzy process, this thesis incorporated fuzzy set approaches to simulate the continuous process of urban development. It makes a significant contribution to the integration of fuzzy set and fuzzy logic control, cellular automaton simulation and geographical information systems (GIS) to urban development modelling.The cellular automaton model of urban development delimits urban areas using a fuzzy membership function and then applies transition rules with linguistic variables to represent the non-deterministic nature of urban development controls. This model was implemented within a GIS using ARC/INFO's Arc Macro Language (AML) in a GRID environment. The model was applied to simulate the urban development of Sydney from 1971 to 1996 and to predict its future urban development in the next two decades. A number of spatial data sets related to the urban development of Sydney were collected and processed using spatial analysis techniques in a GIS. The visualisation of Sydney's urban development during the 1971-1996 period demonstrated that the urban areas of Sydney were developing at about 15 square kilometres per year. Systematic calibrations of the model were conducted. The simulation accuracy of the model's outcomes against the actual urban development of Sydney was regularly compared. With the implementation of rules representing urban natural growth, slope constraint, transportation support, terrain and coastal proximity attraction and urban planning controls, the model generated an overall accuracy of 95.0 per cent and a Kappa coefficient of 90.4 per cent in 1996. In addition, the impacts of different neighbourhood scales on the model's outcomes were assessed. For Sydney, a circular neighbourhood with a radius corresponding to a local block/neighbourhood community generated the most accurate results. The simulation results from the model identified the following major factors as affecting the urban development of Sydney: the self-propensity for development, neighbourhood support, transportation networks, slope and terrain constraints and coastal proximity attraction. Planning controls also affected Sydney's urban development by reinforcing the impact of other factors including the slope and transportation networks.This dissertation identified a dual role for the cellular automaton model of urban development as: 1) an analytical tool to explore and evaluate the impacts of the rules underpinning the process of urban development; and 2) a planning tool to examine the outcomes of planning options for urban development.v.1 Text. - v.2 Appendix IV with Animations" @default.
• W66169439 created "2016-06-24" @default.
• W66169439 creator A5021293751 @default.
• W66169439 date "2001-01-01" @default.
• W66169439 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W66169439 title "Modelling urban development with geographical information systems and cellular automata : a case study of Sydney since 1971" @default.
• W66169439 doi "https://doi.org/10.14264/uql.2017.554" @default.
• W66169439 hasPublicationYear "2001" @default.
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