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• W66415239 abstract "My perspective on European Monetary Union and future of euro is based on a special combination of three elements: (1) my strong belief in standard economic argumentation summarized in well-known theory of optimum currency areas, (2) my citizenship in a small Central European country that has just joined European Union and will at some point be a member of EMU, and (3) my current political role that forces me to reveal my position on my country's membership. Basic Arguments I am convinced that driving force behind European monetary unification has been strictly political, not economic. This often-used argument can be supported by my own experience based on numerous explicit conversations about it with key European political leaders. economic arguments have been marginalized or taken only very superficially. political ambition has been quite dominant. euro has always been considered to be a useful instrument for creation of European political Many statements of that kind can be quoted. European President Romano Prodi, in an interview on CNN (January 1, 2002), explicitly stated: The introduction of euro is not economic at all. It is a completely political step. . . . historical significance of euro is to construct a bipolar economy in world. Two years before that, in Financial Times (April 9,1999), he said: The two pillars of national state are sword and currency and we changed that. Gerhard Schroeder, in March 1998, still an opposition leader, said that the Euro is a sick premature infant, result of an over-hasty monetary union. After eight months as a German Chancellor, he made a different statement: Our future begins on January 1, 1999. euro is Europe's key to 21st century. era of solo national fiscal and economic policy is over. Spanish Prime Minister Felipe Gonzales said in May 1998: The single currency is a decision of an essentially political character.... We need a united Europe. We must never forget that euro is an instrument for this project. I can quote indefinitely but words will be almost same. I believe that largest part of positive economic impact of European integration (as well as of EU enlargement) has come through liberalization of and investment and has been already obtained. marginal contribution of further economic or noneconomic unification will be close to zero, if not negative. Because of that, birth of euro and enlargement of EU in May 2004 do not represent any breakthroughs. I agree with Patrick Minford (2002: 36) that trade patterns are determined by comparative advantage, not by monetary factors. I also agree with him that role of exchange rate risk as a factor determining foreign investment and cost of capital is relatively small (Minford 2002: 29-32). Trade does not need to have same currency on both sides of transaction. To look at economic performance of eurozone in first years of euro's existence, even pro-European activists must admit that overall expectations of an economic boost and claims that introduction of euro would speed up economic growth have not been fulfilled. This is not a surprise for me and, to be fair, not everyone had such expectations. Rudiger Dornbusch, always sharp and consistent, whom we miss very much, wrote in 1996 that EMU moved from an improbable and bad idea to a bad idea that is about to come true. Many of us knew then and know now that formation of a regional common currency is neither a necessary, nor a sufficient condition for healthy economic growth. It seems, on contrary, that Europeans have imprisoned themselves in a rigid monetary arrangement that has led to a loss of a nonnegligible part of their originally existing flexibility. When we look at current European monetary and overall economic problems we have to--at least analytically--differentiate two issues: (1) impact of a monetary union upon nonidentical countries, but countries that are at a similar level of economic development, and (2) impact of entry into a monetary union of a country that is at a different level of economic development than dominant part of union and is undergoing dynamic structural changes in an effort to catch up with its more developed partners. …" @default.
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• W66415239 date "2004-03-22" @default.
• W66415239 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
• W66415239 title "The Future of the Euro: An Outsider's View" @default.
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