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• W67040423 abstract "Sadly for New Labour, and indeed for anyone who cares about the future of progressive politics in the UK, we are back to a state of affairs from which, for the last decade at least, we have been relatively free. We are back into an election cycle dominated by the poor performance of the UK economy. Prior to 1997, the normal driver of electoral politics in the post-war UK was the state of the economy. As James Carville once famously told Bill Clinton, ‘it’s the economy, stupid’. The normal pattern was that, if the economy was doing well, the party currently in office stayed in office; and if the economy was doing badly, the party in office did badly too. Indeed, the more individual voters felt personally impacted by exposure to unemployment or to its threat, the more likely were they to turn to some new political formation in order to avoid the loss of their job and the diminution of their income. The UK economy is currently doing very badly, and the number of voters directly impacted by exposure to unemployment or to its threat is at a twenty-year high; so if the normal pattern of electoral politics in the post-war UK holds, the chances of New Labour keeping the Tories at bay look, at best, extraordinarily long and at worst, next to impossible. But in part, whether Gordon Brown’s government receives an electoral drubbing depends on how the present parlous condition of the UK economy is packaged and sold. If the financial crisis and the resulting recession is packaged and sold as a set of problems that were internally generated, then responsibility for them will visibly lie in New Labour’s hands, and electorally the party will be toast. If however, the financial crisis and the resulting recession can be packaged and sold as a set of problems that were externally generated and internally inflicted, then New Labour will have the political space to parade the claim that, but for the quality of Brown and Darling’s economic management, the pain inflicted would have been significantly worse. If New Labour can sell that argument to a sceptical public, its electoral majority may yet survive. We can expect the entire party leadership to try, but in truth they will find it a very hard sell." @default.
• W67040423 created "2016-06-24" @default.
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• W67040423 date "2010-01-01" @default.
• W67040423 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
• W67040423 title "Keeping the Tories at bay" @default.
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