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- W72415005 abstract "The application of conventional economic models, e.g., partial equilibrium computation or LP models, do in many cases lack realism owing to a number of untested a priori assumptions. Computing power and information resources have dramatically improved in the recent past, which increasingly allows economists to substitute model assumptions with real data. The modeling approach taken in this paper was originally designed to model industrial restructuring and relocation of the Siberian forest sector during its transition from a command economy to a market-oriented economy. Based on the possibility of linking to an extensive GIS-database, the modeling strategy was to build an easy-to-understand and easy-to-compute economic model that makes maximum use of existing data and expert knowledge. The model is based on Vickery’s Nobel Prize-winning auction theory (Vickery 1961) and simulates the possible future formation of Russia’s forest industrial sector. In the model, I distinguish between a static phase and a dynamic phase. The static phase describes the auction mechanism involving a number of strategy sets, which is applied for each period, leading to a partial market clearing. In the dynamic phase, product prices adjust based on supply slack expectations, capital is invested or depreciates, contract partners revise contract policies and, finally, factor prices change exogenously reflecting the overall economic development. Demand equations are currently predicted using Bayesian econometrics of panel data. The Bayesian priors are estimated using consumption data of selected Western economies from 1960 to 1985. Such an agent-based model can be used for policy analysis of various scenarios at different levels of detail, by modeling the entire economic system on the basis of behavioral, resource, and technological characteristics of individual firms." @default.
- W72415005 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W72415005 creator A5025780942 @default.
- W72415005 date "1999-01-01" @default.
- W72415005 modified "2023-09-27" @default.
- W72415005 title "A Model for the Siberian Timber Products Market" @default.
- W72415005 cites W1522954195 @default.
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- W72415005 doi "https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-6397-4_17" @default.
- W72415005 hasPublicationYear "1999" @default.
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