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- W73473940 abstract "If firm sizes have a small dispersion, idiosyncratic firm-level shocks lead to negligible aggregate fluctuations. This has led economists to appeal to macroeconomic (sectoral or aggregate shocks) shocks to explain aggregate fluctuations. However, the empirical distribution of firms is fat-tailed. This paper shows how, in a world with fat-tailed firm size distribution, idiosyncratic firm-level fluctuations aggregate up to non-trivial aggregate fluctuations. We illustrate why and how this happens, and contend that aggreage fluctuations come in large part from idiosyncratic shocks to firms. We show empirically that idiosyncratic volatility is indeed large enough to account for GDP volatility.This “granular” hypothesis suggests new directions for macroeconomic research, in particular that macroeconomic questions will be clarified by looking at the behavior of large firms. This mechanism might be useful understanding the fluctuations of many aggregate quantities, such as business cycle fluctuations, inventories, inflation, short or long run movements in productivity, and the current account." @default.
- W73473940 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W73473940 creator A5069579613 @default.
- W73473940 date "2004-01-01" @default.
- W73473940 modified "2023-09-26" @default.
- W73473940 title "Power Laws and the Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations" @default.
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