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• W749853800 abstract "AbstractWe analyzed monthly averages of sale prices of 6,198 residential properties in the Greater Haifa Metropolitan Area, recorded between January 1998 and October 2011. We found the statistical significance of different price influencing factors appeared to change during different phases of housing price formation, with the association between housing prices, on the one hand, and credit and housing supply factors, on the other, being especially strong during the price acceleration phase. We also introduced in the analysis 1st and 2nd derivatives of housing price trend lines, estimated using polynomial smoothing. Although sentiments'' about housing price trends may influence both supply and demand, they cannot always be modeled directly. Our modeling approach, based on price derivative analysis, may help to capture such sentiments, thus improving the robustness of empirical models used as explanatory tools and for forecasting.(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)Housing prices in urban areas may vary broadly reflect temporary increases and drops in demand, quality of housing units sold and other factors (de Vries, de Haan, van der Wal, and Marien, 2009; Glaeser, Gottlieb, and Tobio, 2012). In addition to such temporary price hikes and drops, long-term changes in housing prices may also occur, reflecting long-term changes in supply and demand, global economic trends, and general macro-economic cycles (Bemanke, 2010; Agnello and Schuknecht, 2011).For real estate developers and individual investors, long-term trends are clearly more informative than short-term fluctuations. Knowledge about such long-term trends may assist in making informed decisions about selling and/ or buying real estate properties. For urban economists and real estate researchers, knowledge about long-term trends and the factors affecting them may also help to build more reliable price prediction models (Rapach and Strauss, 2009).Researchers have investigated long-term trends in the residential property market (e.g., Tsatsaronis and Zhu, 2004; Coleman, LaCour-Little, and Vandell, 2008; Campbell, Davis, Gallin, and Martin, 2009; de Vries, Haan, van der Wal, and Marien, 2009; Goetzmann, Peng, and Yen, 2009; Kima and Renauda, 2009; Rapach and Strauss, 2009; Schulmeister, 2009; Wheaton and Lee, 2009; Clayton, Miller, and Peng, 2010; Agnello and Schuknecht, 2011). Yet, socio-economic processes and the circumstances accompanying different phases of the natural housing price cycle and the factors affecting them are less thoroughly investigated and relatively poorly understood. In this paper, we identify and empirically measure the relative significance of several supply and demand factors affecting housing prices during different phases of a housing price cycle, namely price increase or decrease, acceleration, and deceleration.As we hypothesize, the relative importance of market fundamentals, such as lending rates and housing supply, tends to be different during different phases of the housing market cycles, and is associated with public sentiment about real estate trends. For instance, the effect of these factors may be less pronounced during a price deceleration phase, when many apartment owners are trying to sell their depreciating assets and demand is generally weak. In contrast, these factors may emerge with a greater strength during the price acceleration phase, especially in supply-restricted markets, when many homeowners withhold their assets, while homebuyers are ready to pay higher price premiums anticipating future price increases.To test this hypothesis, we analyze the factors affecting average monthly prices in the Greater Haifa Metropolitan Area (GHMA). The GHMA has a population of about 600,000 and is the third largest metropolitan area in Israel (after Tel Aviv and Jerusalem). As a proxy for public sentiment, we introduced in the analysis 1st and 2nd derivatives of housing price trend lines, obtained by polynomial smoothing. …" @default.
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• W749853800 date "2014-01-01" @default.
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• W749853800 title "Identification of Housing Market Trends and Factors Affecting Them: The Greater Haifa Metropolitan Area in Israel as a Case Study" @default.
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• W749853800 doi "https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.2014.12090384" @default.
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