Matches in SemOpenAlex for { <https://semopenalex.org/work/W754157993> ?p ?o ?g. }
Showing items 1 to 87 of
87
with 100 items per page.
- W754157993 abstract "Large flares and fast CMEs are the drivers of the most severe space weather including Solar Energetic Particle Events (SEP Events). Large flares and their co-produced CMEs are powered by the explosive release of free magnetic energy stored in non-potential magnetic fields of sunspot active regions. The free energy is stored in and released from the low-beta regime of the active region s magnetic field above the photosphere, in the chromosphere and low corona. From our work over the past decade and from similar work of several other groups, it is now well established that (1) a proxy of the free magnetic energy stored above the photosphere can be measured from photospheric magnetograms, maps of the measured field in the photosphere, and (2) an active region s rate of production of major CME/flare eruptions in the coming day or so is strongly correlated with its present measured value of the free-energy proxy. These results have led us to use the large database of SOHO/MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning Solar Cycle 23 to obtain empirical forecasting curves that from an active region s present measured value of the free-energy proxy give the active region s expected rates of production of major flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and SEP Events in the coming day or so (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather, 9, S04003). For each type of event, the expected rate is readily converted to the chance that the active region will produce such an event in any given forward time window of a day or so. If the chance is small enough (e.g. <5%), the forecast is All Clear for that type of event. We will present these forecasting curves and demonstrate the accuracy of their forecasts. In addition, we will show that the forecasts for major flares and fast CMEs can be made significantly more accurate by taking into account not only the value of the free energy proxy but also the active region s recent productivity of major flares; specifically, whether the active region has produced a major flare (GOES class M or X) during the past 24 hours before the time of the measured magnetogram." @default.
- W754157993 created "2016-06-24" @default.
- W754157993 creator A5006823671 @default.
- W754157993 creator A5036368878 @default.
- W754157993 creator A5038158202 @default.
- W754157993 creator A5043931988 @default.
- W754157993 date "2012-04-24" @default.
- W754157993 modified "2023-09-23" @default.
- W754157993 title "Forecasting Space Weather from Magnetograms" @default.
- W754157993 hasPublicationYear "2012" @default.
- W754157993 type Work @default.
- W754157993 sameAs 754157993 @default.
- W754157993 citedByCount "0" @default.
- W754157993 crossrefType "journal-article" @default.
- W754157993 hasAuthorship W754157993A5006823671 @default.
- W754157993 hasAuthorship W754157993A5036368878 @default.
- W754157993 hasAuthorship W754157993A5038158202 @default.
- W754157993 hasAuthorship W754157993A5043931988 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C106933524 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C108411613 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C108884401 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C115260700 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C121332964 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C151325931 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C153294291 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C157479481 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C162565982 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C172600038 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C185001636 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C197370839 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C2776779350 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C2779471453 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C2779588948 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C2779900269 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C32546565 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C44870925 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C62520636 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C72886185 @default.
- W754157993 hasConcept C87355193 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C106933524 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C108411613 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C108884401 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C115260700 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C121332964 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C151325931 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C153294291 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C157479481 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C162565982 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C172600038 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C185001636 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C197370839 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C2776779350 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C2779471453 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C2779588948 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C2779900269 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C32546565 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C44870925 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C62520636 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C72886185 @default.
- W754157993 hasConceptScore W754157993C87355193 @default.
- W754157993 hasLocation W7541579931 @default.
- W754157993 hasOpenAccess W754157993 @default.
- W754157993 hasPrimaryLocation W7541579931 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W2017452070 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W2039168871 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W2161828928 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W2246417301 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W273514568 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W2952709901 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W2981406470 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W3011089222 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W3030366460 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W3046463499 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W3049512558 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W3101980169 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W3102921395 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W40967868 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W61042242 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W781924034 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W819931833 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W2185441500 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W2560248062 @default.
- W754157993 hasRelatedWork W2956044324 @default.
- W754157993 isParatext "false" @default.
- W754157993 isRetracted "false" @default.
- W754157993 magId "754157993" @default.
- W754157993 workType "article" @default.